With the storm now south of Fraser (K'gari) we’ll see most of the swell blocked by that Island.
Primary tabs
TC Alfred is about 730 KM NE of Rockhampton and expected to move southwards today, with a SW track possible into Sat.
If we get the CQ crossing, very serious surf in the 8ft range or bigger is likely Mon into Tues.
The trade-wind fetch is relatively robust and will be a long-lasting swell producer for the east coast, favouring sub-tropical areas for size. Confidence is low on the track for TC Alfred and thus it’s surf potential- a general slow southwards movement is expected which is favourable but we may still see a coastal crossing before the cyclone reaches it’s full potential as a surf generator.
Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics.
We’ll see a brief fallow period before a SE surge Fri brings a new SE swell with the next round of Tradeswell next week, possibly enhanced by tropical low pressure systems in the South Pacific and Coral Sea.
An active monsoon pattern is seeing a tropical low drifting in the Coral Sea with a supporting high approaching New Zealand and a slow moving trough line just off the NSW Coast. The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters.
There’s already a wide swathe of E’ly to SE’ly winds across the Coral Sea and a developing low off the Central QLD coast tracking towards New Caledonia. That will increase windspeeds along the northern flank of a very broad trade-wind fetch smack bang in our eastern swell window.
Surfwise E’ly swells from trade-winds off the top of the high will hold show more energy Mon, up a notch through Tues as the general wind field in the Southern Coral re-strengthens and more mid period swells make landfall from the stalled progression of lows in the South Pacific.
Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Wed Feb 5th)
This week and next week (Feb5-Feb14)
Central QLD: Easing swells short term with next week now looking a bit lacklustre
Plenty of fun waves in the recent past, easing into the weekend.