Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Mon 4th Dec)

This week and next week (Dec4-Dec 15)

Central QLD: Building swells later this week, becoming very large as cyclone drifts down Coral Sea

Still tiny and onshore, for now.

Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week. It’s still early days but under certain modelled outcomes we could see a coast hugging system bringing large swells to the CQ coast. 

Nothing in the short term with small, weak swells remaining tiny 

All eyes will be on the Coral Sea with an expected TC starting it’s southwards journey. Initially we’ll see a developing E’ly wind field in the Coral Sea late this week which should see a small increase in E-E/NE trade swell through Thurs, up into the 2ft range. A further increase Friday into the 3ft range is then likely.

Solid E’ly swells over the weekend should see plenty of 3-5ft surf with fresh E’ly to SE’ly winds.

Predictability and confidence in outcomes then takes a nosedive depending on the outcomes of the potential TC (Nat). If it remains slower moving in the Coral Sea the size increase will be delayed. Onshore winds will be an issue under this scenario.

One modelled outcome is a coast-hugging system which would see large to XL swells develop from the NE-E/NE, possibly as early as Mon/Tues. Depending on the speed of movement we’d expect a very rapid rise in size (6-8ft as a guide) and potential drop-off as the system passed by. That would make it one of the more significant swells for CQ in recent memory.

Very large surf expected if this chart comes off

We’ll flag these potential outcomes for now, and keep a weather eye on all the available track and intensity data as it comes to hand, with a full report back on Wed, as well as below the line updates, most likely in the QLD notes.

Seeya Wed.