The monsoon remains active with a small sub-tropical low movingE off the QLD coast where it may undergo further development In the Coral Sea in the medium term. A typical summer tradewind band cradles this low next week with plenty of E quadrant swell expected, favouring the sub-tropics for size.
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A northwards moving trough brings a SE-E/SE flow into the CQ swell window north of Fraser later Wed with small E/SE swells developing Thurs.
No change to the short term f/cast. TC Kirrily has now crossed the NQ coast leaving a light N’ly flow in the Coral Sea and no real swell generating winds. That will see tiny/flat surf over the weekend and extending into next week.
We’ll see fun waves peak through Thurs morning before easing into Fri and becoming tiny over the weekend.
All the headline action is in the tropics with a cyclone (TC Kirrily) expected to form within the next 24-36hrs in the monsoon trough NE of Cairns. A coastal crossing in N.QLD now looks the most likely outcome with some surf potential for the CQ region, at least in the short/medium term.
All eyes on the Coral Sea where this tropical low is expected to deepen into a tropical cyclone that is expected to be slow moving.
In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally,the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week. Still plenty of uncertainty there over intensity, track and surf potential but at least some model runs are starting to look favourable.
A SE surge currently working it’s way north now looks to stall and dissipate before it reaches water north of Fraser Island with only tiny/small surf expected for CQ.
The resulting SE surge up through the Tasman into the Coral Sea generates plenty of swell as the fetch spreads out across the Tasman. We should see surf build Tues into Wed with plenty of fun surf.
A large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast and a SE surge develops up the QLD coast.