The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week. Surf size will be limited by the relatively weak supporting high pressure cell which is currently tracking through the Bight. We’re still looking at plenty of moderate size surf from the S quadrant to end the week and carry through into the start of the weekend. 

A Bass Strait fetch later Mon should provide some small refracted S swell later Tues, likely missing the South Coast-Illawarra stretch and showing from Sydney to the Hunter with some 2-3ft sets in the a’noon.

We’re looking at a fairly static, summer-style blocking pattern this week with semi-stationary high pressure in the Tasman, and a ridge up along the Eastern seaboard with SE winds in the North, E/NE to NE winds from the Mid North Coast down to Southern NSW. A long trough line extending from the Solomon Islands to the North Island spins off some small low pressure areas this week. Although not quite as spectacular as model runs suggested last week we’re still in for some fun E swell this week with a juicier pulse expected late this weekend.

We’re in the middle of a winter-style pattern more common in August than November with a small low formed in along a front/trough line off the Gippsland Coast accelerating W’ly winds across most of the Eastern seaboard.  A series of deeper fronts and lows are also transiting the lower Tasman as part of this cold outbreak. While they are not ideally positioned for maximal S swell production up the East Coast we are still looking at some useful S swell pulses over the rest of the week and into the weekend.