Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Boxing Day with freshening N’ly winds
• NE windswell likely Fri with winds shifting NW in the a’noon before a S’ly change later a’noon
• Easing swells into next weekend and a quiet end to 2024
• Nothing much for 1st week of 2025- low confidence in outcomes so check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

S swell came up quickly yesterday to 3-5ft at S exposed breaks under SW tending S/SE winds. It eased back a notch in the a’noon after the initial spike. A little underwhelming today with size stabilising in the 4ft range at S exposed breaks, clean under light offshore breezes tending light E/NE during the day. Nothing incredible but still some very fun waves around for Xmas day. 

A little undercooked but still some fun S swell in the water for Xmas Day

This week (Dec 25-27)

No great change to the outlook. A deep low is moving slowly towards New Zealand but the main bulk of the fetch has already rotated away from the East Coast with an off axis fetch aimed at South Pacific Islands. Elongated high pressure is moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough, front and cut-off low expected to tighten the pressure gradient leading to freshening N’lies from Boxing Day. A quiet end to 2024 and start to 2025 is expected under a weak, troughy environment and nothing in the near and far swell swell windows. 

In the short run we’ll see S swells easing through tomorrow with some fun sized 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches early easing through the day. Early winds should be light from the W-NW before winds clock N/NE-N and freshen, in excess of 20kts in the a’noon.

Developing N'ly fetch Boxing Day generates some rideable surf

Freshening N’lies generate NE windswell later Thurs and into Fri with size in the 2-3ft range expected, under fresh N’ly winds, which tend NW after lunch. A trough brings a S’ly change, likely hitting Sydney later in the a’noon around 5-6pm.

This weekend (Dec28-29)

Nothing much this weekend. Friday’s trough brings some small short range S swell to 2 occ. 3ft but all short period low quality stuff. Early SW-S winds clock around E/SE-E, even E/NE as the trough quickly moves away. 

Size then eases right back for Sun with no significant swells in the water and tiny leftovers to 1-2ft under a light onshore flow. Get in early for cleanest conditions and bring plenty of volume to the beach. Great day for kids on new boards to get out the back.

Next week (Dec30 onwards)

Nothing of significance on the radar for next week. Weak high pressure in the Tasman and light winds and tiny swells for the last days of 2024. 

Nothing much to see here first day of 2025

Models are hinting at a developing N’ly flow Tues/Wed (EC) or a weak troughy S’ly change (GFS), either of which may generate some minor rideable surf for Dec31-Jan 1. 

Nothing concrete for the second week of Jan either. Possible weak monsoonal low in the Coral Sea, or a weak developing trade fetch.

We’ll flag a period of slow, small surf and see how it looks on Fri.

For now, Merry Xmas all and seeya Fri.