Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger pulse of S swell Thurs PM, extends through Fri with W’ly winds easing
• Fun S swell Sat with light winds
• Kick in long period S swell Sun with light winds AM, tending N-NE in the a’noon, S swell easing through Mon
• Couple of small days early next week before E swell starts to slowly build from Wed
• E swell now gets a downgrade as low remains mostly on the wrong side of the North Island, still fun waves Wed-Fri
• Possible E-ESE swell next weekend if low or low remnants come into Tasman Sea, check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Some fun, clean S swell on the menu yesterday with 2ft+ surf at S facing beaches, 3ft on the Hunter and early clean conditions tending to S-SE winds during the a’noon. Today is seeing bigger 2-3ft surf across most of the region with the Hunter in the 3-4ft range. Early clean conditions are being marred by a light onshore flow but there are still plenty of workable options to be had to end the working week. 

Great conditions and fun S swell on the Hunter yesterday

This weekend (Nov5-6)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Light onshore flow through Sat is expected with a morning land breeze keeping things clean until mid-morning. Expect a few 3ft sets at S facing beaches through the morning, easing back through the day as conditions slowly deteriorate.

A final pulse of longer period S swell is still expected for Sunday. Windspeeds and an intensification of the fetch were favourable but the winds were very zonal in alignment so expect a flukey swell with some places picking up much more size than others. With periods in the 15 second band some solid 4ft+ sets are on the menu for select S swell magnets whilst the general size away from S swell magnets will be in the 2ft range. Light NW winds are ideal for S swell magnets with a light/mod NE seabreeze expected in the a’noon. I expect Sunday will be a bit feast or famine depending on if your location is receptive to the long period energy.

Next week (Nov7 onwards)

Charts have looked great all week with a low pressure system drifting in from the Coral Sea inside the North Island but the bad news is the low is now expected to track down the outside of the North Island with a major downgrade in swell potential.

Blocking high pressure is still expected to take up residency in the Central Tasman, directing a summer-like light/mod NE flow across Central/Southern NSW next week. Expect this wind regime to persist all week, and likely into next weekend before an approaching mid-latitude low brings the next pattern change week beginning 14/11.

Leftover S swell Mon should see some 2-3ft sets, bigger 3ft on the Hunter through the morning with light NW winds tending N’ly then NE through the a’noon with a small signal of E swell filling in through the a’noon.

This small E swell signal in the 2ft range will persist into Tues AM and start to lift a notch into the 2-3ft range through the a’noon and into Wed as the fetch though the Central/Northern Tasman starts to generate a trade-wind style swell. 

The SE-ESE flow does intensify through the middle-end of next week but the majority of this fetch is better aimed at sub-tropical targets (see below) so a more modest increase in side-band energy is expected for the f/cast region through Thurs/Fri. Expect E’ly swell up in the 3ft range through Thurs and Fri with continuing light/mod N to NE winds, likely NW inshore early. 

Nothing amazing but there should be plenty of rippable beachies to be had.

Into next weekend and we’re still watching the Eastern swell window hoping the low or remnants of the low could generate a fetch on the western side of the North Island, possibly down to Cook Strait late next week (see below). That would see an increase in E-ESE swell for next weekend. Failing that we’ll be looking at small levels of E swell into next weekend, likely with freshening N’ly winds as a cut-off low approaches from the interior.

We’ll see how it shapes up over the weekend and report back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!