Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Mon, extends into Tues AM, with another pulse building wave heights in the PM- winds W-SW
• Stronger pulses Wed, peaking Thurs with winds becoming light
• Easing S swells Fri with light winds
• Not much on offer this weekend, small S leftovers Sat, weak NE windswell Sun
• Small surf expected Mon next week with a slight S swell pulse Tues
• Possible NE windswell later next week, check back Wed for updates

Recap

A reasonable mixed bag was on offer over the weekend with some still-strong leftover S swell Sat morning in the 3-4ft range, bigger 3-5ft on the Hunter and with some 6ft surf reported from S facing reef breaks on the South Coast. Clean conditions early before N’ly winds kicked in. Yesterday saw a mix of easing S-SE swell to 2-3ft with some small NE windswell in the 2 to occasional  3ft range with early N’ly winds replaced by grooming W’lies both sources eased in size during the a’noon. Surf is tiny this morning with sub 2ft surf across most of the region and a small S swell signal just showing on the Central Coast to Hunter. A frontal progression tied to a deep parent low will bring multiple pulses of S swell to the region this week. Read on for details.

Small S swell lines just starting to show, plenty more to come this week

This week (Nov 21-25)

Yesterday’s W’ly change was the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement. Gales out of Bass Strait produce a refracted S swell signal from today, while the deeper low is slingshotting gales through today/tomorrow with a final front exhibiting stronger gales on an active sea state as it tracks NE into the Tasman on Tues/Wed. The swell trains will be mixed together so expect a pulsey few days as the various S’ly swell trains make landfall.

In the short run and W’ly winds are expected to hold groomed conditions for most of the day apart from the Hunter when periods of WSW-SW wind will scuff up surface conditions. Todays small S swell is expected to persist into Tues with larger refracted S swell boosting wave heights from 2-3ft to 3-4ft at S facing beaches and bigger 4-5ft surf on the Hunter. Expect smaller surf away from S exposed breaks. 

W’ly winds provide groomed conditions through Wed and this offshore flow should hold well into the late morning before weak E’ly breezes kick in. Mid period S swell will overlap with previous S swell trains to hold surf in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Expect a pulsey nature to the swell as the various swell trains overlap.

By Thursday, weak high pressure will have drifted over the region, with light land and seabreezes expected, likely tending E-NE through the a’noon. Thursday should be the high point of the week surf-wise as longer period swell trains from the deep fetch Tues/Wed (see below)make landfall. The extra period will see a big spread in wave heights as certain swell magnets hoover up most of the size, while other beaches miss out. If you can factor than in there should be some solid surf around- likely some 6ft+ surf at some S facing reefs, with a more widespread distribution of 3-5ft surf.

By Friday we’ll be on the back-side of the swell event with easing swells expected. Winds remain light under the influence of weak high pressure . Expect 4ft sets through the morning at S facing beaches, easing in size through the day, likely ending up in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches through the a’noon. Much smaller elsewhere. 

This weekend (Nov26-27)

Nothing to get excited about for this weekend’s f/cast. If you missed out during the week the news isn’t good. Were looking at small leftovers Sat in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches.

By Sunday that S swell signal will have almost entirely disappeared and we’ll one left with just a weak NE windswell signal from a fetch which is located off the sub-tropical NSW Coast.

Winds should be light Sat morning before kicking up from the NE during the a’noon.

Sunday looks flukier with a trough hovering around the Central NSW Coast likely to bring a shallow S’ly change. We’ll finesse this wind outlook as we get closer to the weekend.

Next week (Nov28 onwards)

Not much action to start the last week of Spring. We’re looking at weak pressure gradients in the Tasman for at least the first half of next week as a insipid high pressure drifts NE into what are more typical spring time positions.

A passing front Sun/Mon doesn’t have much going for it with a zonal fetch and rapid transit.

After a tiny Mon we should see a small bump in S swell Tues with size in the 2ft range at S facing beaches. Tiny elsewhere.

From mid next week we’ll be looking at a very quiet swell regime with size in the 1ft range through Wed/Thurs. 

We may see a small NE windswell develop Thurs PM into Fri as high pressure drifts towards New Zealand and an inland trough line tightens up the pressure gradient- but we’ll wait and see how that looks before making any definitive calls.

The tropics is starting to stir with low pressure troughs across the North of Australia and out in the South Pacific, so we’ll keep a watchful eye on those and hopefully have some better news there as we proceed through the week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.