Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Kick in long period S swell Sun with light winds AM, tending N-NE in the a’noon, S swell easing through Mon
• Small E swell Tues, with a slight bump in size Wed
• Fun E’ly tradewind style swell slowly builds Thurs, peaks Fri with light/mod E to NE winds
• Fun, easing E swell Sat with flukey winds
• Last pulse of E-E/SE swell Sun with increasing N’ly winds, easing into Mon
• Possible NE windswell spike Mon, easing quickly Tues as W’ly winds arrive
• Tracking possible small S swell pulses mid/late next week

Recap

A wide range of wave heights were reported across the region, as expected, as a series of overlapping south pulses made landfall. Sat saw some 4ft surf across S facing magnets through the morning, mostly 3ft, easing through the a’noon with light morning offshore winds tending to sea breezes in the a’noon. A longer period pulse Sun favoured S swell magnets on the Hunter with reported 4-6ft sets, smaller 3-5ft in Sydney and much smaller south of the harbour. Early light offshore winds provided groomed conditions before a’noon sebreezes. Today is seeing easing S swell with some 3ft sets on the Hunter, much smaller elsewhere and NE winds becoming established. 

No surprises that the Hunter hoovered up most of the S swell juice over the weekend

This week (Nov 7-11)

We’re looking at a fairly static, summer-style blocking pattern this week with semi-stationary high pressure in the Tasman, and a ridge up along the Eastern seaboard with SE winds in the North, E/NE to NE winds from the Mid North Coast down to Southern NSW. A long trough line extending from the Solomon Islands to the North Island spins off some small low pressure areas this week. Although not quite as spectacular as model runs suggested last week we’re still in for some fun E swell this week with a juicier pulse expected late this weekend.

In the short run we’ve got a couple of small, summer-style days ahead as SE/ESE winds in the Northern Tasman supply E’ly swell in the 2ft range through Tues. Traces of S groundswell from Souther Ocean fronts supply some minor S swell with sets to 2ft at the most reliable S swell magnets. There’ll be a modest synoptic onshore flow from the E/NE to NE through the day with potential for land breezes more likely north of the Harbour and on the South Coast. A troughier inshore flow on Wed should see land breezes extend through the region before onshores kick back in. If you’re not too fussy there should be surfable options extending through the day.

We should see a small increase in size Wed as a result of a fetch today just on top of the North Island as a small low pressure area briefly flares up. The fetch quickly dissipates and drops behind the North Island but a few 2-3ft sets are on offer through Wed. 

Surf ratchets up another notch Thursday as the fetch thickens up through the Northern Tasman this week. It’s all mid period tradewind-style swell, which should be perfect for beachies. By Thurs size will be lifting up into the 3ft range, possibly 3-4ft by the a’noon. Expect more of the same winds, light/mod onshore E to NE with a chance of a land breeze through the morning. 

We’ll likely see the peak in size of the “tradewind style” E swell Fri with sets to 4ft. Nice and chunky and with winds tending NE after a morning NW breeze. 

This weekend (Nov12-13)

Under current modelling Fridays swell peak should roll down in size through Sat as that Tasman Sea fetch matures and breaks down. Expect 3-4ft of E swell, easing during the day. Winds are looking flukey on Sat as a trough approaches the South Coast. We may see a weak S’ly change extend into the f/fast area or a regime of light winds if the trough stalls out on the South Coast. We’ll dial that in during the week.

Sunday looks a little juicier. As we noted Friday a low centre intensifies and approaches the North Island Fri/Sat with a fetch of gales pushing down the west side of the North Island into the Tasman Sea (see below) before dissipating. This is on track to supply a more muscular pulse of E-E/SE swell Sun in the 3-5ft range. We’re likely to see a N’ly flow resume as the trough moves offshore and a high pressure ridge establishes. 

Next week (Nov14 onwards)

A few things to watch out for next week. N’lies should increase Mon as a cut-off low approaches NSW, with good odds for NE windswell to overlap easing E/SE swell to begin the new week. 

The low then approaches Tasmania Tues, driving W’ly winds across the region with a potential window of small NE windswell being groomed by a W’ly flow.

The low looks to ease quickly as it tracks SE of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea swell window proper. Wednesday will likely be tiny with a Bass Strait fetch and fetch SE of Tasmania supplying some small S swell towards the end of next week.

Models are showing tropical low pressure forming in the South Pacific Convergence Zone near Fiji early next week, which we will keep an eye on. At this stage any low-pressure in the South Pacific looks to slide SE away from the East Coast so swell potential is limited. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.