We’ve got a troughy, unstable synoptic pattern on our hands with monsoonal clouds and moisture extending from the Top End dawn to a trough off the NSW South Coast. Weak pressure gradients look to be with us for a few days as the trough lingers about the NSW Central/Mid North Coast, possibly forming a small low. Small pulses of E swell generated by fetches near the North Island supply some fun sized surf if you can work around the wind shifts expected this week.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/30/lots-wind-shifts-week-few-small-pulses
freeride76
Monday, 30 January 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/27/enough-swell-sources-keep-things-ticking
freeride76
Friday, 27 January 2023
Weak high pressure is rapidly moving SE into the Tasman in the wake of yesterdays trough, which has stalled just north of the Hunter coast. E’ly fetches are still bubbling away near the North Island with more small E quadrant swell expected over the short/medium term. A long range, rare SSE-SE groundswell is just starting to show on Tasmanian buoys.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/25/more-summer-fun-ahead-e-swells-keep
freeride76
Wednesday, 25 January 2023
The synoptic pattern over and surrounding Australia still has a clear La Niña signature with troughy low pressure areas in the Tasman Sea and an active monsoon trough across Northern Australia. High pressure on the other side of New Zealand is cradling areas of low pressure and maintaining a small, fun E swell signal.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/23/tricky-swell-sources-and-fun-sized-e
freeride76
Monday, 23 January 2023
A troughy pattern exists through the Northern Tasman down to the South Coast with the remnants of TC 10P (named by JTWC but remained a cyclone for less than a day) drifting in a SW direction from out near New Caledonia. A small low pressure cell near the South Coast is slowly drifting south leaving a variable flow in it’s wake across the f/cast region.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/19/keep-those-grovel-boards-handy-more
freeride76
Friday, 20 January 2023
No great change to the weekend f/cast. The remnants of yesterdays troughy change are now lingering off the NSW North Coast and a weak high pressure ridge is maintaining a soft but persistent onshore flow along the Eastern Seaboard. Activity in the tropics has been intense but short-lived with TC Irene forming between New Caledonia and Vanuatu, now downgraded back to sub-tropical storm status and racing away to the SE (the grave-yard) without being a significant swell producer for the East Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/17/robust-sly-change-thurs-low-quality
freeride76
Wednesday, 18 January 2023
Weak high pressure sits in the Tasman now, directing freshening NE winds across the Central/Southern NSW Coast as a trough and front approach from the W and SW. The trough will bring a robust S’ly change to the NSW Coast through Thurs, extending up into the sub-tropics during Fri. S’ly winds and swell quickly build in the wake of the trough.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/16/summer-slop-continues-low-quality-s-sse
freeride76
Monday, 16 January 2023
We’re in a bit of Groundhog Day pattern with another weak high moving into the Tasman, directing onshore winds across the Eastern Seaboard. These winds are tending NE through temperate NSW, more E’ly in the sub-tropics. This weak onshore flow will see continuing small, Summer slop until a S’ly change later in the week brings a new S-SSE swell pulse.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/12/small-summer-surf-weekend-s-swell-the
freeride76
Friday, 13 January 2023
We’ve got a weak, blocking pattern with high pressure (1025 hPa) right smack bang in the middle of the Tasman directing an onshore flow along the Eastern Seaboard. NE across Temperate NSW and SE-E in the sub-tropics. Warm SST (sea surface temperatures) are helping morning land breeze development so conditions should be relatively clean through the early sessions.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/11/small-flukey-swells-ahead-lots-summer
freeride76
Wednesday, 11 January 2023
An insipid Summer blocking pattern is now setting up as a weak high (1019 hPa) moves East of Tasmania and becomes semi-stationary in the Central/Lower Tasman. That will see a short/medium term pattern of onshore winds and small summer slop becoming established.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/01/09/get-your-grovel-game-ready-small-weak
freeride76
Monday, 9 January 2023
We currently have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with continuing instability across the tropics in the wake of an active, monsoon pattern. High pressure is expected to drift south of Tasmania this week, with a typical Summer NE wind pattern becoming established. Remnants of low pressure near New Zealand are offering up minor fetches out of Cook Strait (currently) and near the South Island which will supply a few small pulses of swell this week.
