Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 16th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small uptick in S swell Wed with mod/fresh SW winds developing
• Bigger mid period S swell increase Thurs with fresh SSW-S winds as low occupies Tasman Sea
• Mid period S swell peaks Fri with S’ly winds easing through the day and tending SE
• Light winds Sat AM with mix of leftover S and SSE-SE swell, winds freshening from the NE in the PM
• Fresh N’lies Sun, tending offshore through the day
• Another round of small/mod S swell pulses expected from Mon next week, peaking Wed with offshore winds- check back Fri for updates

Recap

Small leftovers from the NE yesterday morning supplied a few clean 2 footers, with a boost in new S swell through the a’noon offering up some 2-3ft S swell, bigger 3ft on the Hunter. Size is similar into today, although some bigger S swell sets to 4ft+ are on the Hunter, and longer period swell trains are getting into sheltered spots better. Conditions are clean under an offshore W to WSW flow in most of the region, scuffed up by more S’ly biased winds along the Hunter. 

Lines starting to refract into more sheltered spots

This week (Nov 16-18)

The complex low system we mentioned Mon is now moving into position with a small low cell East of Tasmania and a deeper parent low tracking through the lower Tasman. The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week. Surf size will be limited by the relatively weak supporting high pressure cell which is currently tracking through the Bight. We’re still looking at plenty of moderate size surf from the S quadrant to end the week and carry through into the start of the weekend. 

In the short run and the low winds up overnight with a proximate fetch of strong winds to near gales adjacent to the coast and extending down to Tasmanian latitudes. This will add plenty of mid-period S swell to existing S swell trains, with unruly surf in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. Expect mod/fresh SW winds to tend SSW-S through the day and smaller/cleaner surf at more protected locations. 

By Friday the low will be drifting towards New Zealand and pressure gradients will be easing along the NSW Coast, leading to early SW winds easing in strength and tending to light SE breezes during the day. Thursdays mid period S swell should hold at similar sizes through most of the day, with swell direction starting to veer more SSE through the a’noon as swell trains from the Central to Eastern Tasman start to make landfall. That should offer a few more options under easing S to SE winds. By the a’noon we’ll see an easing trend in surf size start to kick in .

This weekend (Nov19-20)

Sat morning is still looking the best of the f/cast period with S-SSE swell to 3ft and early W to W/NW winds. Size will ease through the day and winds tend NE and freshen through the a’noon.

By Sunday there won’t be much SSE swell left in the water, just a small signal of 1-2ft surf mixed in with some small NE windswell. No need to rush for the early. By mid-late morning, an approaching front and complex low system tracking below the Bight will bring W/NW to W winds which will offer some clean baby-food through the rest of the day, although surf will likely become tiny after mid a’noon.

Next week (Nov21 onwards)

Looks like the next approaching low is of another order of strength higher than this weeks system with much higher windspeeds. Another trough/front Mon sees winds have a NW tilt before tending strong to near gale force W’ly through the day. Gales out of Bass Strait persist through Sun/Mon with small S swell expected to develop Mon PM, favouring Central Coast to Hunter areas, smaller in Sydney and much less size from the Illawarra southwards.

During Mon into Tuesday the parent low is expected to track NE past Tasmania into the Tasman Sea with a broad fetch of severe gales below Tas as well as continuing gales out of Bass Strait (see below).

Models are still divergent about wind strengths and the direction of the wind vectors so we’ll pencil in some moderate S’ly groundswell with a wide range of wave heights expected across the region later Tues, peaking Wed and easing down through Thurs. S swell magnets like the Hunter are likely to see some solid 4-6ft surf from this source, grading smaller 3-4ft at other S facing beaches and with much less size at other areas. Winds are likely to be W’ly through this period, tending NW through Thurs.

By the end of next week size should be easing right down with small surf and no major swell sources expected for next weekend as weak high pressure moves into the Tasman.

We’ll take a fresh look at next week as well as a final pass over the weekend on Fri.

Seeya then.