Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 18th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mid period S swell holds Fri with S’ly winds easing through the day and tending SE
• Light winds Sat AM with mix of leftover S and SSE-SE swell, winds freshening from the NE in the PM
• NE windswell Sun AM and small SSE swell leftovers with fresh N’lies Sun, tending offshore through the morning
• Another round of mod/strong S swell pulses expected from Mon next week, peaking Wed/Thurs with offshore winds
• S swells easing into Fri and next weekend

Recap

Plenty of strong S swell across the region which came in pulses above f/cast expectation. Yesterday saw strong surf across S facing beaches with the Hunter, Central Coast and select Sydney S facing beaches seeing solid 6ft+ surf, clean early under offshore winds before winds tended more S’ly through the day. Today has backed off a notch from that peak with size in the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches, smaller at other locations and cleanish under offshore winds although there was some leftover bump and wobble from overnight S’lies. Winds are now in the process of tending more SE and easing as the region comes under the influence of weak high pressure.

Plenty of strong S swell yesterday

This weekend (Nov19-20)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’re past the peak of the current S swell event as the large low pressure system drifts towards New Zealand, weakening as it does so and a more mobile high pressure system moves north-east into the Tasman Sea, bringing N’ly winds.

Those N’lies will kick hard through tomorrow, so get in early for a period of variable/offshore winds which are likely to persist until mid-morning at the latest. Surf-wise we’re looking at easing surf from the S-SSE with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches and a slight kick in SSE swell late morning rebuilding sets to 4ft as NE winds begin to freshen.

Strong overnight N’lies Sat will see a mix of NE windswell to 2-3ft and some stray leftover SSE swell with inconsistent sets to 2-3ft and both sources easing quickly as winds tend W/NW then W’ly as a cold front pushes aggressively across the region through mid morning.  If you can pounce on the wind change there should be a window of fun waves to be had.

Next week (Nov21 onwards)

Next cold outbreak and frontal progression is still on track for next week with another round of over-lapping S swell pulses on the menu. 

Pre-frontal NW winds Mon, will quickly shift W’ly and freshen as the next front pushes through and surf is expected to be groomed close to flat inshore with a small late kick in new S swell from near gales out of Bass Strait on Sun. This swell will likely show from Sydney north, favouring the Hunter with some 2-3ft sets, tiny elsewhere.

By Tues we’ll see more S swell in the water, becoming more widespread as multiple fetches produce multiple over-lapping S swell trains (see below). Expect 2-3ft surf through the morning at S facing beaches under offshore winds to build through the a’noon, likely into the 3-4ft range, bigger 4-5ft range on the Hunter.

These pulses continue strongly into Wed as longer period swell trains start to make landfall and these pulses are expected to continue into Thurs, although there is still some model divergence to get through.

Provisionally we are looking at stronger 3-5ft surf, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter, through Wed/Thurs with offshore winds, tending to light breezes Thurs as weak high pressure moves over the region. 

Easing S swells are expected to end next week and extend into the weekend before another N’ly blast tending W’ly as another approaching low enters the picture from the West. It’s a more winter style pattern than we saw in winter so make friends with your nearest S swell magnet.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!