Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• NE windswell spike Sun PM, peaking Mon AM, easing Mon PM as winds tend NW-W
• Small S swell likely Tues PM, favouring Central and Hunter coasts
• Small uptick in S swell Wed with mod/fresh SW winds developing
• Bigger mid period S swell increase Thurs with fresh SSW-S winds as low occupies Tasman Sea
• Mid period S swell peaks Fri with S’ly winds easing through the day
• Light winds Sat AM with mix of leftover S and SSE-SE swell
• Fresh N’lies Sun, tending offshore through the day
• Another round of small/mod S swell pulses expected next week- check back Wed for updates

Recap

A few options over the weekend with some tricky wind shifts to work around. Sat saw mostly leftover E swell in the 2ft range or less with a weak S change working it’s way up the coast, leaving the Hunter with the longest window of favourable conditions. Sundays E/SE-E pulse came in right around f/cast expectations with surf in the 3ft range with a few bigger 4ft sets at select E facing spots. Morning light land breezes tended to freshening NE breezes in the a’noon. Today is seeing a NE windswell mostly whipped up overnight with conditions on the improve as a front brings a NW to W flow and size in the 2-3ft range. We’ve got an unruly Spring week ahead with plenty of wind to work around. Read on for details.

Plenty of NE windswell being groomed by offshore winds this morning

This week (Nov 14-18)

A complex low has remained slow moving through the last 24hrs and is hovering over Southern Vic and Tasmania, with a long front extending up into he interior to join a heat trough in the North-west of the country. A warm front has bought a W’ly change to temperate NSW. Through the early part of this week the low slips SE of Tas and a complex, troughy pattern with multiple low centres sits in the Tasman. This complex low pressure area eventually gets squeezed by an oncoming high generating fresh S’lies and which overlap with deeper S’ly fetches to create a series of S swells later this week. 

In the short run and W’ly winds extend into tomorrow morning before running out of puff as a troughy area extends along the coast, which should see winds clock around SE-NE through the day, at light breeze strength. Surf should be tiny through the morning with marginal leftovers from the NE in the 1-1.5ft range. We may see a slight bump in S swell from near gale W’ly winds out of Bass Strait today, but that is likely confined to Central to Hunter coast areas, where some 2ft sets are expected. 

Wednesday will see a small increase in S swell, with the Bass Strait source being topped up with new S swell from the parent low which ducked SE of Tas during Mon. This fetch was weakening as it moved away so we’re not expecting much size, just a few 2footers in the morning, bumping up to 2-3ft during the a’noon. Winds will be a factor as they freshen from the SW as a low centre starts to wind up E of Tas and the large, diffuse low pressure area in the Tasman starts to coagulate into a more organised low pressure centre. 

By Thursday this developing low pressure area will be occupying most of the Tasman Sea (see below) and the squeeze with an approaching high will see a regime of fresh SSW to S’ly winds through the Western Tasman and along the NSW Coast. That will see a moderate signal of mid period S swell overlap existing S swell trains with size building from 3-4ft up to 4-6ft at  exposed breaks, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter. A lot of that size will be sacrificed at more protected spots. 

Mid period S swell is expected to peak through Fri morning with size in the 6ft+ range, bigger 8ft on the Hunter. The large Tasman low will be drifting towards New Zealand by this stage with weakening pressure gradients so expect morning SSW-SW winds to tend S’ly and ease through the day, likely ending up as light SE breezes through the a’noon. Size will also be rolling down through the day. 

This weekend (Nov19-20)

Sat is looking pretty good at this stage. Early winds should be light NW-W as a trough hovers over the area and a weak high cell moves off the sub-tropical area of NSW. Expect those winds to tend N-NE and freshen through the day. Surf-wise we’ll be looking at a mix of leftover S swell and SSE-SE swell being generated from the lower flank of the low as it drifts towards New Zealand. That should see clean 3ft surf early, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter, easing through the day.

Fresh N’ly winds overnight Sat into Sun may whip up some small NE windswell, although models aren’t favouring this possibility at the moment. Winds will shift W then WSW as a front linked to another approaching cut-off low pushes through during the day. That is likely to see surf ease right back to tiny during the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov21 onwards)

Looks like a rinse and repeat pattern next week with the approaching low pressure complex driving gales out of Bass Strait and a general easing trend as the low gets shunted SE as it moves into the Tasman. 

The general pattern has been for a more southward orientation of the lows as they approach, weakening as they enter the Tasman- favouring the Southern States for swell production and potentially signalling a  degradation of the La Niña pattern. We’ll need more data to make that call, but for now we’ll flag the change and see how it pans out.

Fresh W’lies next Mon will likely see tiny surf with an increase in S swell expected through the a’noon. 

More small/mod S swell pulses are expected next week as further fronts push past the lower Tasman. No great size is expected but we should see moderate pulses in the 3-4ft range through mid next week. The offshore flow should tend to variable breezes from mid next week as another long trough hovers about the coast. 

We’ll start to finesse these sizes and winds as we move through the week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.