Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun E’ly tradewind style swell perks up a notch Thurs, holds Fri with light/mod E to NE winds
• Fun, easing E swell Sat with flukey winds- SW/NW early with a weak S-SSE change then E-NE in the a’noon
• Last pulse of E-E/SE swell Sun with increasing N’ly winds, easing into Mon
• NE windswell spike Sun PM, peaking Mon AM, easing Mon PM as winds tend NW-W
• Series of S swell pulses from Wed next week into Fri with light winds - check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Not a great deal of swell energy since Mon with weak, summer-style short period E-ESE swells in the water and an onshore flow. Yesterday saw 2ft surf for the most part, 2-3ft on the Hunter with an onshore E/NE flow making a mess of it. Conditions are glassier this morning with land breezes fairly widespread across the region and weak 2-3ft surf on offer, swallowed up through the morning by full moon high tides. Nothing amazing but pleasant for a grovel. 

Weak and swallowed up by high tide but still a pleasant grovel

This week (Nov 9-11)

We’re in the middle of the blocking pattern which is coming in a little weaker than modelled. High pressure (1025hPa) sits in the Central Tasman directing a fairly insipid SE flow through most of the Central/Northern Tasman and extending into the Coral Sea. A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. As a result surf is coming in at the low end of f/cast expectations, and this soft trend is expected to continue.

In the short run and with our expectations lowered we’re in for just a slight bump in E’ly swell through tomorrow, with size mostly in the 2-3ft range and the odd bigger one in the mix as a result of an off-axis fetch in the Eastern Tasman. More of the same winds as well- light/mod E/NE-NE with good odds for a morning land breeze widely distributed across the region. 

Thursdays slight increase is expected to hold through Fri as the blocking pattern begins to break down. Expect 2-3ft surf from the Eastern quadrant- with the odd bigger set- and winds to tend more NE through the day after a morning nor-wester. These winds are expected to stay within gentle to moderate breeze strength so surface conditions should remain serviceable through the a’noon, especially if you can tuck in behind a headland. 

This weekend (Nov12-13)

Winds are still looking flukey for the region on Sat as a troughy change works it’s way up the coast. Early NW-SW winds are likely to tend S-SSE through the morning before weak E’ly to NE’ly breezes establish through the a’noon. Surf-wise we’re looking at the dregs of this week’s tradewind style surf, with soft 2ft surf expected. Keep your eyes out for late kick in E/SE swell generated by a fetch off the West Coast of the North Island but Sunday is more likely.

Sundays E/SE groundswell also gets a haircut, unfortunately. The fetch which begins out of Cook Strait and flares up off the West Coast of the North Island is now weaker, less extensive and shorter in duration compared to model runs on Mon. It’s still perfectly aimed at the region so we’ll see some nice 3-4ft sets, with a low end bias. Winds will quickly establish from the N-NE through Sun and freshen so you’ll need to seek wind protection early in the morning. The rapid development of a N’ly fetch extending up to sub-tropical latitudes is likely to see NE windswell develop to 2-3ft in the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov14 onwards)

The NE fetch reaches peak strength overnight Sun into Mon (see below) with NE windswell in the 3ft range through Mon morning and winds quickly shifting NW, then W’ly as a cut-off low approaching Tasmania drives a W’ly synoptic  flow across temperate NSW. That offers a window of rapidly improving surf conditions as the swell drops, with a few stray E/SE sets quickly easing.

W’ly winds look to groom an ocean devoid of swell sources close to flat through Tuesday. We may see a late increase in S swell from gales out of Bass Strait but Wed looks a better bet.

From mid next week S swell is now looking to be the dominant swell source as the cut-off low moves SE into the Tasman and an angled trough maintains a SSW-S fetch near Tasmania. 

There’s still some model divergence so expect some revision but based on current modelling we should see an increase in new S swell Wed with size provisionally getting up into the 2-3ft range, bigger 4ft on the Hunter.

Further pulses are likely Thurs and Fri, of roughly similar sizes, although we’ll finesse those calls as we get closer to the event.

Weak high pressure is expected to be over the temperate NSW Coast later next week suggesting light winds during these S well pulses.

Check back in Fri and we’ll run the ruler over it and take a last look at the weekend.

Seeya then.