Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon January 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell Mon with strengthening N/NE winds, N/NW early
• Easing windswell Tue with S/SW  winds
• Small S swell building in Tues PM, extending into Wed AM
• Longer period S swell fills in Wed PM
• Not much over the weekend
• More NE windswell likely early next week
• Possible better quality E/NE swell longer term from the tropics 

Recap

Not much over the weekend with tiny surf to less than 2ft both days. Similar this morning with NE windswell to 1-2ft but we will see a building trend through the a’noon to 2-3ft under mod/fresh N tending NW winds.

This week and next week (Jan 27 - Feb7)

Still a patchy outlook for the short term with a weak high tracking across the Tasman and some frontal activity approaching from below the Bight. This frontal activity will combine with a trough to deliver a S’ly change tomorrow morning  along with a small flush of S swell through Wed/Thurs. The trough lingers in the Central Tasman and holds a small signal of E/SE swell through the second half of this week. A very low energy spell ensues following that. Longer term is starting to look more dynamic as the tropics finally starts to fire up. Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones.  NETas is likely to see at least some workable NE windswell during this period and possibly some E/NE swell of tropical origins. There’s no clear model trends yet so we’ll outline the possibilities and track them through the week and see how they shape up.

In the short run the NE infeed into the approaching trough fires up through today before getting shunted away tomorrow by the trough, which brings a fresh and gusty SE tending SW change as a front comes in over the top of the trough. We’ll see early NE windswell to 2-3ft easing through the day with new S swell building to 2ft in the a’noon.

We’ll see more S swell of varying quality Wed- mostly short period stuff in the morning with better quality longer period swells filling in during the day. Early SW winds shift S then lay down and tend variable to NE in the a’noon so there should be a window if you can time the favourable wind changes. 

Small leftover S swell into Thurs morning to 2-3ft, easing right back to tiny during the day. Get in early with light offshore winds.

Not much at all then through the end of the week and over the weekend with weak pressure gradients in the swell windows and  tiny surf. Sunday may see some traces of S swell to 2ft but it’ll be marginal so keep expectations low. We’ll see how it looks on Wed.

Further ahead and high pressure moves into the Tasman next week while the tropics fires up. At the least NETas should see some workable NE windswell during the early part of next week as NE winds develop off the South Coast NSW down to Bass Strait.

There is a chance of better quality E/NE swell later in the week if tropical low pressure or a cyclone drifts down through the Coral Sea into the Tasman.

Long way out with low confidence at present so lets see how it looks on Wed. 

Seeya then.