Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed January 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Longer period S swell fills in Wed PM/eases through Thurs
• Not much over the weekend, traces of S swell possible at S facing beaches
• Small NE windswell Sun PM, bigger Mon and Tues
• S change Tues PM- with a spike in S swell Wed
• More NE windswell later next week

Recap

NE windswells provided surf in the 2-3ft range yesterday with clean conditions before S/SW winds freshened. Smaller residual NE swells to 1-2ft are on offer today with light winds now tending to light E/NE breezes. 

This week and next week (Jan 27 - Feb7)

The trough and front which brought a S’ly change has now stalled on the MNC (S’ly at Coffs, NE at Yamba) with a weak trough line in the Tasman and some paltry SE winds below the trough line aimed up at Central NSW. Along with a last pulse of S swell we’ll see minor E swell pad out the week. The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. As new high pressure drifts into the Tasman over the weekend we’ll see another round of NE windswell develop for NETas late in the weekend and early next week. 

In the short run we’ll see a last pulse of S swell fading out from tomorrow with a few 2ft sets in the morning, easing during the day with W-SW winds easing and tending to light/variable breezes during the day.

Not much at all for Fri with minor swells and light winds. There are traces of longer period S swell in the mix which may make S facing beaches worth a look but keep expectations low.

Same goes for Sat with similar winds. 

We may see some more minor S swell Sun as a compact low gets quickly shunted SE of the Island. If anything, it’ll be flukey 2ft at S facing beaches. Small amounts of NE windswell building in the a’noon under NE winds look to be more reliable. 

Into next week and NE windswell Mon should build into the 2-3ft range with N’ly winds tending more NW late in the day.

The bulk of the fetch is shunted away but leftover winds off NSW should hold 2-3ft sets on Tues under N winds before a fresh SW change as a front pushes through.

Source of NE windswell Mon/Tues

That should generate a flush of S swell into Wed in the 3-4ft range with winds shifting quickly from SW-S to E-NE as high pressure slides across the state.

That should generate some more NE windswell later next week but we’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.