Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Apr 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell building Wed PM
• Long period S swell Thurs with offshore winds
• More S swell pulses later this week into the weekend with offshore winds
• Small E/NE swells into and over the weekend and into next week
• More S swell pulses next week
• Stronger S swell likely Fri next week

Recap

E/NE swells have persisted in the 2ft range through yesterday and into today with some long period S swell filling in through the a’noon to 3ft with winds shifting from W to W/SW-SW.

This week and next week (Apr10 - Apr19)

There’s currently a robust Tasman low, still intensifying, moving slowly SE off the Central NSW coast down into the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand. Gales to severe gales wrapping the SW flank of the low will supply some SE swell through the rest of the week. Under this sharp trough in the jet stream, as Craig pointed out, strong polar fronts are being steered NE below the Tasman, with long period S swells wrapping into the East Coast of Tasmania. NE infeed into the low will add small E/NE swell sources into the mix. 

Strong frontal activity under Tas sends long period S groundswell pulses from tomorrow

In the short run todays pulse builds in o/night with solid S swell to 4-5ft at S facing beaches. Winds will be a problem, tending SW-S early before shifting S/SE then light and variable in the a’noon as swells ease off. 

Fridays winds look better as another front passes below the state and W’ly ridging returns. Winds will shift from NW through W during the day. Strong reinforcing S swell holds 3-4ft surf with bigger sets at S facing beaches. 

The weekend looks good with offshore winds both days and overlapping S’ly groundswells. We should see 2-3ft surf Sat with a reinforcing pulse in the a’noon to 3-4ft.

Similar size Sun with 3-4ft surf slowly easing during the day.

Into next week and small S pulses continue as well as some minor background energy from the E/NE holding the occ. 2ft se through Mon-Wed.

Winds looks good for Mon, with light offshore breezes, tending more S’ly on Tues as a weak area of low pressure forms NE of Tasmania. S’ly winds extend through Wed at this stage. 

A frontal intrusion Thurs should see a moderate S swell possible Fri. That should slowly ease through next weekend.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.