Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Apr 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell persisting Mon with offshore winds
• S swell building Wed PM
• Long period S swell Thurs with offshore winds
• More S swell pulses later this week into the weekend
• More S swell pulses next week

Recap

Building E/NE swells Sat with large E/NE surf to 6-10ft on Sun. Today has seen easing 3-5ft surf with light winds.

This week and next week (Apr8 - Apr19)

We’ve got a very slow moving pattern this week with a very sluggish and large high (1035hPa) barely moving from a position to the S of WA. That’s allowing plenty of space for low pressure development in the Tasman and as a front pushes through and combines with the remnants of a trough we’ll see a robust low develop through tomorrow, with gales expected close to the NSW coast. Strong frontal activity to the south tied to slow moving and complex polar lows is better aimed at NZ and South Pacific targets but plenty of refraction and sideband southerly energy is expected to make landfall in addition to the Tasman low swell this week and into the weekend. 

In the short run, we’ll see a front pass over with SW winds shifting W’ly through the day. Leftover E/NE swell should hold inconsistent 2-3ft sets through the morning before easing with some small S swell building to 2ft in the a’noon.

Offshore winds hold through most of Wed before a light S’ly flow, with some small E/NE swell holding 2ft sets.  Through the a’noon we’ll see a first pulse in a series of long period S swells, generated by a  fetch of severe gale SW winds well to the south of Tasmania Tues with a follow-up fetch close behind it. That should see surf build to 3ft at S facing beaches as the swell front arrives.

A series of strong lows and fronts bring long period S groundswell pulses this week

Stronger S swell then fills over night with size in the 5-6ft range on Thurs and light SW tending S’ly winds on offer.

We’ll still still see plenty of long period S swell Fri from a tailing fetch, behind the main front. Expect size in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, easing during the day. Winds look good Fri with light N tending NW-W/NW breezes.

Into the weekend and we’ve got more long period S swell pulses on the radar. Sat looks smaller with offshore NW-W winds and size to 2-3ft before a fresh pulse arrives in the a’noon to 3ft+.

This pulse builds into Sun with more size to 3-5ft at S facing beaches and continuing offshore W-W/NW winds.

More mid/long period S swell pulses continue into next week, likely persisting through the end of the week. We’ll finesse size and timing as we move through the week.

Wind-wise we should see mostly offshore conditions as fronts continue to move under the state with some light N’lies possible Tues. Not much strength to it under current modelling but we’ll see how it looks on Wed. 

Check back then for the latest update.