S swells into the weekend but S'ly winds remain persistent

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • S swell pulses and S winds through until the end of this week
  • Strong S swell pulses Sat, easing Sun with S-SE winds slowly easing
  • Surf becoming small into next week

Recap

Small S swell to 2ft yesterday with fresh SW winds. Today has built in size to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks but S/SW winds are not favourable for surface conditions.

This week and next week (May1- May10)

A monster high (1042hPa) is slowly inching east well south of the Bight, with s S-SE flow anchored along the entire Eastern Seaboard. Troughs off the North Coast and inland will add instability to the onshore flow. A storm force polar low is better aimed at Pacific targets but we’ll still see some long period S groundswell from it this weekend, with the proviso that S’ly winds will remain persistent.

Not much change to the short run outlook. S’ly winds a problem through Thurs and Fri as a high pressure ridge remains over the state. We’ll see long period S swell fill in tomorrow with sets to 2-3ft in the morning, building to 3-4ft in the a’noon.

This pulse then holds into Fri, easing a notch before a slight reinforcing pulse in the a’noon. Surf should stay around 3ft at a minimum during the day but again , winds will affect wave quality to the negative. 

Into the weekend and S swells from polar lows hold surf in the 3ft range Sat at S facing beaches. We’ll see S’ly wins but they should relax as high pressure approaches the state. 

By Sun the swells will be easing rapidly with only weak 1-2ft surf at best under light SE winds.

Next week looks very weak and small as high pressure moves into the Tasman and the S swell window is effectively shut down. Looks like tiny surf for the entire working week.

Check back in on Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.