Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Apr 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More small S pulses Mon AM, and Tues
• Robust S swell likely Thurs into Fri as strong front sweeps past the state
• Fun leftovers Sat with opffshore winds
• Back to small swells Sun/Mon
• More S swell pulses Tues, larger on Wed (see be

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday with clean conditions, a S’ly change has bought some small short range S swell to 2-3ft today with fresh S’ly winds making a mess of most beaches.

This week and next week (Apr22- May3)

We’ve got a dominant (1035hPa) high pressure cell sitting just north of the Victorian border, bringing settled conditions and light winds to Central/Southern NSW, NW winds to Tasmania and strong but easing SE winds in the sub-tropics where a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is currently active but dissipating and moving East. Some frontal activity to the south is poorly positioned and aligned but we will see a stronger frontal intrusion into the Tasman later this week, although not with an accompanying Tasman low as suggested on Friday.

In the short run we’ll see NW winds through tomorrow and into Wed before a front brings a SW change.

Not much surf tomorrow, just tiny background E/NE -NE swell to 1ft or so, extending into Wed at similar levels.

We should see an a’noon increase in S swell on Wed as an initial low/front passes to the NE of the state, with fresh W tending SW winds and surf building to 2ft or so at S facing beaches.

Stronger S swell on offer for Thurs as a trailing fetch slingshots into the Tasman on an already active sea state(see below). Expect mid period S swell to build from 2-3ft to 3-5ft at S facing beaches with mod SW winds.

Stronger longer period swell fills in through Fri with sets to 5-6ft at S facing beaches and winds remaining W/SW-SW.

Into the weekend and surf looks good for Sat as leftover S swells hold to 3ft under offshore conditions.

That will be mostly all gone for Sun with leftovers to 1-2ft and offshore winds.

Next week looks like a small start. We may see a S’ly change Tues around a weak trough with some stronger frontal activity moving well south in the lower Tasman.

That frontal activity suggests some moderate S swells next week, starting Tues with a larger pulse Wed.

Check back Wed and we’ll update with all the latest information.