By Friday the low will have moved towards the West Coast of the South Island, where it intensifies again, generating strong surf for East Coast Tasmania.
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Much better quality swell arrives Sun, generated by gales near the South Island aimed back towards East Coast targets.
Small amounts of E/NE swell will build later Mon, into the 2ft range as a Easterly trough low forming off the Sydney coast remains slow moving over the weekend.
Tricky, refracted southerly swell this period with some additional easterly energy for next week.
Further ahead and we’ll be tracking a potential south-wards moving coast-hugging low which is expected to form off the NSW or QLD coast later this weekend.
There's nothing to recommend over the coming period until late next week.
Don’t expect much surf for the weekend, with cold and W’ly winds on offer and surf close to flat both days. A tiny wave Sat a’noon in the 1-1.5ft range may be surfable for chunky equipment.
We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. The Cook Strait fetch will produce some fun waves for East Tasmania.
Today's large SE groundswell will ease over the weekend, with some weaker, smaller east swells to follow.
The Southern Ocean gyre is now well to the S and SE of the South Island, generating one last pulse of long period swell for our region.