Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon February 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell kick Tues PM
• Small S swell extends into Wed with S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Small NE windswell develops Thurs PM, peaks Fri, eases Sat
• Nothing much Sun
• Possible small S swell Mon
• Possible small E/NE swell from cyclone Mon/Tues, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Small waves Sat as E/NE swell eased, with traces of S swell in the mix. Not much on offer Sun with tiny S swell and tiny surf has continued into today with light SW winds tending S/SE through the day.

This week and next week (Feb 6 - 17)

We’ve got a return to a  typical Summer synoptic pattern after a large, mid-latitude low cleared Tasmania on the weekend and quickly exited across the Tasman Sea. Weak high pressure has now moved into the lower Tasman, with light/mod onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard- NE in temperate NSW, tending more SE in the sub-tropics. A convective cloud mass between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is expected to consolidate and deepen into a tropical cyclone by mid week, tracking back into the Coral Sea towards the tropical QLD coast before recurving and drifting Southwards through the Coral Sea and eventually towards the North Island. Eastern Tasmania is mostly too far south to see much swell from this source but there may be some traces of E/NE swell later on the weekend from it.

In the short run and a passing front brings S/SW winds tomorrow. The fetch is mostly too zonal for the East Coast but a long trailing fetch should help some small S swell wrap in with size building to 2ft later Tues and holding into Wed at slight larger levels. Tiny to flat away from S facing beaches. Through Wed we’ll see winds tend more E/SE after a S’ly start to the day. 

Passing front brings small S swell Tues PM/Wed

High pressure moves into the Tasman Thurs and a N’ly fetch develops off the South Coast, bringing small NE windswell to the table during the a’noon with size to 2ft. This NE windswell builds further into the 3ft range Fri with light winds expected as a trough hovers about the NE of the state.

The weekend looks small with easing NE windswell Sat and light winds, tending light N’ly in the a’noon.

By Sun we’ll see small/tiny surf for most of the day. A late S’ly change is expected as a front sweeps past the state and this may bring some small S swell late in the day. 

Small S swell persists into Mon- 2-3ft at this stage, although models are over-cooking size. 

We may see some small E/NE swell filter down to Tas during Mon/Tues depending on the movement of the cyclone so stay tuned for that.

Otherwise, we are looking at small surf into the middle of next week.

Check back Wed for the latest.