Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly swell Fri with a rare SE groundswell supplying some inconsistent sets through Sat
• Fun NE windswell on the cards for Sat, easing Sun
• More small E swell next week, bigger Thurs/Fri
• Possible sizey NE swell by next weekend

Recap

Tiny waves yesterday in the 1ft range with light winds. Today has picked up a notch with size in the 2ft range with a mix of E and long range SE swells making landfall. Early light winds are now tending E/NE-NE and freshening.

This weekend and next week (Jan27 - Feb3)

Weak high pressure is rapidly moving SE into the Tasman in the wake of yesterdays trough, which has stalled just north of the Hunter coast. E’ly fetches are still bubbling away near the North Island with more small E quadrant swell expected over the short/medium term.

No change to the weekend f/cast. As high pressure drifts across the Tasman we get a rapid intensification of NE winds in the swell window leading to a building trend in NE windswell through Sat up to 3ft through the a’noon. A few long period SE sets to 2ft will be in the mix. A late shift in winds to the NW should see improving surface conditions.

A trough passing to the NE of the state and front to the south bring a W’ly flow Sunday and with some clean leftover NE swell in the 2ft range on offer there should be some fun waves.

Into next week and high pressure moves quickly into the Tasman with a trough off the NSW Coast. 

Expect a couple of tiny days to start next week with surf in the 1ft range or so. 

A passing front may bring a small S swell signal Thurs but models aren’t too keen so keep expectations low.

E swell from a fetch in the Tasman near New Zealand looks a better bet (see below) with some 2-3ft surf building in Thurs and holding Fri with a very uncertain wind outlook as a large low approaches or passes Tasmania during this time frame. Winds could be W or hard N’ly so check back Mon for a fresh update.

Fetch near the North Island generates some E'ly swell later next week

These N’lies are likely to see increasing surf from that direction into next weekend into the 4ft range although revisions on timing and size are likely.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!