Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Friday February 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pulse of E/NE swell from ex TC Gabrielle Tues, holding into Wed before easing 
• Light winds Tues, tending N’ly on Wed
• Small NE windswell Thurs/Fri 
• Small surf this weekend
• Possible S swell pulse Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Not much surf over the weekend with Sat seeing small 2ft NE swell leftovers and light winds and Sun seeing a small signal of S swell to 1ft with NE winds. S/SW winds today have gone variable and cyclone swell from TC Gabrielle is running about 10hrs behind schedule, with only small 2ft surf on offer today. 

This week and next week (Feb 13 - 24)

Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term.

In the short run we’re looking at favourable winds for East Tas with light offshore breezes tending variable during Tuesday. Swell from Ex TC Gabrielle should fill in overnight with size to 3ft early, building to 3-4ft during the day with some 5ft sets possible.

3-4ft surf holds into Wed morning with light NW winds early tending N’ly and freshening during the day as high pressure moves into the Tasman.

A weak N’ly fetch holds small NE windswell in the 1-2ft range through Thurs, easing into Fri as the fetch gets shunted away by an approaching trough. 

That trough brings a weak S’ly change Sat with some small S swell possible but keep expectations low as it’s unlikely to exceed 1-2ft at S facing beaches.

By Sunday an approaching front and parent low bring a W’ly flow with surf being ironed out close to flat through Sun/Mon.

The front may bring some small refracted S swell to 3ft on Tues, but we’ll need more model guidance before there’s any degree of confidence in that call.

Into the medium term and it looks like surf goes quiet from mid next week as weak high pressure sits in the Tasman and fronts pass to the south.

Check back Wed for the latest.