Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Friday February 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell tomorrow and Sat with variable tending SE winds Fri, S/SW tending SE winds Sat
• Possible late pulse of E/NE swell Sun, but building strongly Mon, peaking into the evening, easing slowly Tue
• W tending strong S/SE winds Sun PM, light/mod S/SW tending light S/SE-SE on Mon
• Pulse of S swell Mon
• Light W tending NE winds Tue with variable tending NE winds Wed
• Reinforcing E/NE swell for Wed AM, easing into the PM and smaller Thu
• Possible NE windswell late next week, Thurs/Fri likely

Recap

Small surf from the S in the 1-2ft range yesterday with light N’ly breezes. Today has seen NE windswell just a touch bigger than expected with some 2ft+ sets with early variable winds before a weak S-SE change.

This weekend and next week (Feb 11 - 17)

No change to the weekend f/cast with tiny surf Sat in the 1-2ft range with light SE-E/SE winds.

Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 21 knots and is located about 413 nm NE of Brisbane. This severe storm is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition through Friday evening, resulting in an expansion of gale to severe-gales around its southern flank as it continues drifting south-east towards New Zealand.

We may see some forerunners from this system later Sun but Mon is more likely with longer period E/NE swell filling in the 4-5ft range, easing through Tues. We’ll also see some S swell Mon from the front passing through later Sun.

Light winds are expected both Mon as S’lies ease and tend E-NE and Tues with clean conditions expected through the morning before sea breezes kick in. A late S’ly change is expected Sun with plenty of vigour.

The slow movement of the low once it moves across New Zealand will see strong to gale-force E/SE winds continued to be aimed through our eastern swell window, though off axis a little, during Sunday and Monday.

This should see size hold at around 4ft Wed before easing from 2ft+ Thursday. Winds look good as high pressure drift across the Island maintaining light winds.

Later next week we should see some NE windswell develop possibly later Thurs, peaking Fri before a front pushes through next weekend.

We may see some S swell from this front as it pushes into the Tasman early week 20/2 but it’s too early have any confidence in size or specifics.

Check back Mon for the latest and good luck negotiating this upcoming cyclone swell.

Have a great weekend!