Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E swell, just rideable, Mon-Wed with mostly offshore conditions
• Slight kick in E/NE swell Thurs/easing Fri with offshore winds
• Small NE swell Sat with W’ly winds
• Sizey S swell Sun as large low moves E of Tasmania
• Swells easing early next week

Recap

Fun surf was on offer over the weekend with NE swell to 3ft, clean under NW winds. Size dipped into the 2ft range on Sun with light NE winds and has held at that size today wth light onshore winds.

This week and next week (Jan30 - Feb10)

We’ve got a troughy, unstable synoptic pattern on our hands with monsoonal clouds and moisture extending from the Top End dawn to a trough off the NSW South Coast. Weak pressure gradients look to be with us for a few days as the trough lingers about the NSW Central/Mid North Coast, possibly forming a small low. Small traces of E swell generated by fetches near the North Island supply some rideable surf if you can work around the shifty winds expected this week. A strong winter-calibre low becomes slow moving near Tasmania later this week bringing plenty of weather and S swell once it moves E of the state.

In the short run and we’ll see light N’ly winds through tomorrow as the end of the trough line lingers off the East coast. Not much surf expected- just a small E swell signal in the 1-2ft range. 

NW winds tend W on Wed before a late S change as a front pushes through. Small E/NE-E swell holds in the 1-1.5ft range.

We should see a small kick in E/NE swell through the day Thurs from a fetch which tracked down from the South Pacific past the North Island into the Tasman Sea on Mon/Tues (see below). That should see a slight kick into the 2-3ft range through the a’noon, easing into Fri. Conditions should be clean as a large mid-latitude low approaches Tasmania and drives a mostly W-NW flow across the Island.

W’ly winds increase Sat , tending SW Sun as the low slowly tracks SE of the state. Fun levels of NE swell are expected Sat in the 2ft range.

By Sun we should start to see some S swell wrap in as SW gales swing past the state, bringing S swell to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under fresh W-SW winds.

Into next week and we’re looking at easing swells as a large high pressure system approaches from the Bight. A few small days are expected from Mon into Wed. Further ahead and we may see an increasing E-E/NE flow off the NSW Coast as winds feed into an inland trough. That may see increasing E/NE swell for Eas Tasmania later next week but confidence is low on any specifics this far out.

Check back Wed and we’ll have more clarity as to how this unstable synoptic situation is resolving.