Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 1st Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slight kick in NE swell Thurs/easing Fri with offshore winds
• Small NE swell Sat with W’ly winds
• Sizey S swell Sun as large low moves E of Tasmania
• Swells easing early next week
• S swell pulse expected Tues, larger Wed with light winds Wed

Recap

Small E’ly swells in the just rideable 1-2ft range yesterday with light wind have eased back to tiny today under a W’ly flow as a front crosses the state. The front brings a quick blast of S’ly winds later today.

This week and next week (Feb1 - Feb10)

The unstable pattern continues with a small trough of low pressure lingering off the Central NSW Coast, linked to tropical cloud bands and moisture streaming in from the Northern Monsoon. A weak front is crossing Tas with a trough forming t the NE of the state. A large, winter-calibre mid-latitude low approaches from the W and becomes slow moving as it passes the state Fri/Sat.

In the short run and the approaching mid-latitude low drives a NW flow across Tasmania through tomorrow. Expect NE swell to build into the 2-3ft range by close of play as a fetch of N’ly winds develops off the NSW South Coast.

This fetch gets shunted out of the swell window quickly into Fri with sets to 2ft early, easing drug the day under continuing NW to W/NW winds. 

Into the weekend and NW winds Sat will shift W then W/SW as the low slowly moves SE of the state. NE windswell to 2ft should offer some fun options with a late kick in S swell as SW gales sweep up past the state.

This S swell peaks Sun morning in the 3ft range as thelow moves east of the state, before easing through the day. Early fresh SW winds ease and tend to light NE sea breezes as the front rushes away to the E and a weak trough moves NE of the state. 

Low finally moves E of the state Sat/Sun, bringing spike in S swell

Weak high pressure moves NE of the state on Mon leading to a day of NE winds, with tiny surf.

A passing front Tues brings a W’ly change with a brief spike in small S swell to 2ft. 

Longer period swell associated with the parent low behind the front sees stronger S swell to 3-4ft on Wed with light winds as a high pressure cell moves E of the state.

Through the second half of next week models are hinting at a general increase in E/NE into a trough along the Eastern Seaboard. We may see that trough move southwards, aiming up E/NE-NE winds at Tasmania with an increase in swell from the same direction. Models are showing poor run to run consistency which leads to low confidence.

We’ll keep tabs on this and report back Fri with the latest update.