We’ve still got a broad trade wind flow in the Coral Sea, extending out into the South Pacific and anchored head and tail by low pressure along the monsoon trough. That’s producing heavy swells in the sub-tropics (full blown Point surf equivalent to cyclone swells) although we’ll now see a slow easing trend into the end of the week.

There was a nice, lingering tail to the S swell event but we’re now entrenched in a classic late Summer pattern with strong high pressure moving into the Tasman, setting up a downstream blocking pattern and very healthy tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending E into the South Pacific and south into the Northern Tasman.

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a long fetch of severe gales in the southern swell window and wave buoys are all in an aggressive upwards curve as strong S swells build along the Southern NSW Coastline. We’ll see strong pulses of swell from this system until Thurs with easing leftovers until the end of the working week. To the north an extended trade-wind fetch is setting up through the week with another long playing E’ly swell event from that pattern, favouring the sub-tropics for size.

Some quiet days then follow before a much more robust front and low enter the lower Tasman late in the weekend driving some sizey S swell up the coast.