South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jun 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Sat SW-S winds- late kick in new S swell on MNC
• Stronger S swell Sun, extending into Mon, favouring NENSW
• Small surf Tues
• Long range E/SE groundswell Wed/Thurs, easing Fri favouring SEQLD for size but very inconsistent across the board

Recap

Our epic run of swell (for south of the border) is slowly winding down as we head into the winter solistice. Still some sets yesterday with size to 3-4ft, mostly from the S/SE-SE and favourable winds. Swells have clocked around more E/SE today with size to 2 occ. 3ft at NENSW swell magnets, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD and clean conditions under W-W/NW winds which will tend W/SW and freshen after dark as a front and following trough migrate northwards up the coast. 

Lovely sunrise, not much surf left 

This weekend (June 22-23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough and remnants of the Tasman Low will strengthen a SW-S/SW flow across the region through Sat (tending more S’ly late in the day), so best conditions early as winds have more westerly component in them. Nothing much happening swell-wise, just some small SE swell leftovers to 2ft at the best swell magnets. We may see a late kick in new S swell to 2-3ft across the MNC, but quality won’t be anything to write home about amongst 20+ knot S’lies

S’lies again for Sun. A brief period of W-SW winds at the usual spots from Byron to the Southern Gold Coast but windy and raggedy elsewhere. We should see just a slight improvement in swell size as the fetch moves out into the Tasman but nothing of note. Expect 2ft of S swell to build to 3-4ft across NENSW at S exposures, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. A few small waves on offer if you aren’t too fussy about quality.

Next week (June 24 onwards)

Looks like a good week to fix dings and catch up on other chores that may have been neglected. Easing swells and a few small  days ahead next week with generally light winds.

Monday looks the biggest of the week as the leftovers from the weekend’s S swell supply 3-4ft of surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S swell magnets with light winds, tending to light SE’lies in the a’noon.

By Tuesday we’ll have a weak high in the Tasman directing a light wind flow across the region, with a NW’ly-N’ly bias. Those winds are likely  to tend more W and freshen mid week as a cut-off low and interior trough system approaches. 

Not much surf though. 

All the swell sources we mentioned Wed look to be downgraded

We will see some small, long range E swell from Wed into Thurs, easing Fri from the South Pacific system which winds up oiver the weekend but that would amount to very, very Inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets, possibly a notch more on the Sunshine Coast beachies, which should offer the best of it. The system reaches peak strength over the weekend in Tongan longitudes, with a long fetch of E'ly winds, but it is moving away as it deepens, which limits swell growth.

Tiny to flat surf extends into next weekend.

The next major item to look out for is a complex low and frontal system which looks to approach the southern swell window next weekend. Models are still divergent but that should see a renewal in S swell, possibly sizey early week beginning 1/7. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Mon. Hope you got a few from this last run of swell. 

Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!