South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pumping S/SE swells Mon, holding Tues with offshore winds
• Slow easing with plenty of size through Wed into Thurs and offshore winds
• Nice mop up day Fri with offshore winds
• Small S swell this weekend SW-S winds
• Small surf next week
• Tracking low in South Pacific for possible long range E/SE swell medium term

Recap

Plenty of S swell over the weekend in NENSW (smaller in SEQLD) with Sat seeing windy 4-6ft of surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Sunday was less consistent but still with some 4-6ft sets on offer in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD. Very solid today across NENSW with 6-8ft surf at S exposed breaks (occ.10ft sets) under offshore winds. Smaller 3-4ft surf on the Gold Coast with 2-3ft surf on the Sunshine Coast. 

Plenty of size in NENSW

Much more playful in SEQLD

This week (Jun 17-21)

We’ve got a deep low (988 hPa) semi-stationary in the Central Tasman with strong high pressure support south-west of Tasmania and a broad coverage of strong winds to low end gales through the southern Tasman. That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through too mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place. We’ll see a rebuild in more bog standard S swell over the weekend as remnants of the low gets captured by a cold front pushing into the Tasman. Plenty  of solid surf on offer this week. 

Not a great deal of change in the f/cast compared to Fri and even earlier( this swell has been on the radar for 2weeks!). Mod/fresh W-SW winds tomorrow will slowly ease through the day. Tomorrow will still be a big surf day with solid 6 occ. 8f sets still on tap at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3 occ. 4ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD. Keep tabs on the late a’noon for a slightly better angled pulse generated by a slingshot of winds around the southern flank of the low today. By close of play we should see conditions starting to look a little more user friendly (still experts only in NENSW) as winds back down a notch and big sets become more infrequent.

Still pumping Wed with 5 occ. 6ft sets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD under straight offshore winds which should tend W and even W/NW through the day. By close of play we should be in the 4-5ft range with just the very occ. bigger set.

Thursday looks cherry with straight offshore W-W/NW winds which may tend more pre-frontal NW or even light N as a decaying low approaches from the bight. We’ll see surf drop back into user friendly ranges through the day although expect some 4-5ft surf in the morning before easing to 3-4ft by close of play in NENSW, smaller by 2ft in SEQLD.

Nice friendly mop up day Fri with swell trains from the SE-E/SE from the various E’ly infeeds into the decaying low. We should see some 2 occ. 3ft sets early before we drop back into the 2ft range after lunch. Groomed by W-W/SW winds in the  morning which look to tend more W through the a’noon as a cold front pushes up the coast.

This weekend (June 22-23)

We’ll see a rebuild in more bog standard S swell this weekend as a cold front pushes strong winds proximate to the coast (see below). Expect fresh SW tending S/SW-S winds Sat, extending into Sun before easing in the a’noon. Winds should be lighter in SEQLD.

Under current modelling we’d expect size building from 2-3ft to 3-5ft range at S exposures in NENSW , 2ft max in SEQLD. 

Sunday should be similar size with 4-5ft surf at S exposures in NENSWm smaller 2 occ. 3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches before size eases through the day. Nothing incredible but there should be a rideable wave both days, favouring NENSW.

Next week (June 24 onwards)

Much quieter week ahead next week. We’ll be on an easing trend with a dissipating fetch near New Zealand holding some small S/SE swell into Mon, likely in the 3ft range and dropping through Tues. Winds look good, seasonal offshores for the first half of next week, tending more NW-N by mid week as a weak, elongated high pressure system moves across the Tasman. That should see a few small days, possibly becoming tiny into next week.

There’s a an approaching cut-off low later next week, so we’ll tag that for now, and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.

We’ll also be tracking a low forming in the South Pacific towards the dateline this weekend (see below). Models are divergent with EC suggesting the low forms out of the swell window and moves soutgh quickly, not generating any swell for the region. GFS is more bullish with the low inside the swell window later next week and potentially generating long range E/SE groundswell late next week. Long way off so lets see how it looks on Wed.

In the meantime, enjoy the week of waves. Hope your coastline gets a few.