South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri Jun 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny start to the weekend across all coasts
• Fun E/NE swell building Sat PM, easing Sun, clean with offshore winds - biggest in Northern NSW, a little smaller in SE Qld
• Small S'ly swell for Northern NSW on Mon (tiny in SE Qld)
• Small S'ly swell for Northern NSW on Wed (tiny in SE Qld)
• Large S'ly swell for Northern NSW Thurs/Fri, smaller in SE Qld but ideal for the points
• Solid but easing S'ly swell next weekend, biggest in Northern NSW

Recap

Slowly easing E’ly swells from 2-3ft Thursday down to 1-2ft today have been accompanied by perfect conditions with sunny skies, clear blue water and morning offshore winds swinging into light afternoon sea breezes. 

Ideal time to get the Cat across the Bar at Currumbin

This weekend (Jun 8 - 9)

There’ll be no new swell from the southern quadrant this weekend, so all eyes are to the east.

A developing coastal-low off the Southern NSW coast is setting up an infeed of N/NE winds across the northern flank of its associated trough. The fetch length (relative to our swell window) isn’t very long and it’s expected to track slowly to the east - not great for swell production - but we should see some E/NE swell push into the coast on Saturday before easing on Sunday.

I’m expecting a small, slow start on Saturday morning with residual energy from today, however by lunchtime, exposed regions throughout Northern NSW should start to see some sets, and we should push up into the 2-3ft range in the few hours before dark - maybe one or two bigger waves if we’re very lucky. Size will then slowly ease from a similar size early Sunday.

SE Qld is positioned slightly off-axis from this fetch so I am expecting surf size to be a little smaller as you head north from about Byron, though we should still see some nice beach breaks on offer.

Conditions look unreal both days with moderate westerly winds. 

Also, south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast may pick up small lines of south swell later Sunday, from a reintensifying low off Southern NSW on Saturday. Most of its fetch will be acute in direction and tucked in behind the Hunter curve, so only select south swell magnets will pick up the bulk size, but 3ft sets are possible. I’m doubtful it’ll reach much further north than about Coffs or Yamba though.

Next week (Jun 10 onwards)

Leftover, easing south swell across Northern NSW will be the primary energy in the water for Monday morning. South facing beaches along the Mid North Coast could see occasional 3ft+ sets but I suspect we’ll see less influence across the Northern Rivers, up to 2-3ft at south swell magnets. Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller, and we can expect size to ease into the afternoon. 

Remaining beaches will see minor residual energy from the east, generally suitable for beginners. 

Conditions will be clean in the morning with early offshore winds, however a new front will slide up the coast during the day, freshening S/SW winds about the Mid North Coast into the afternoon. An associated short range south swell will bump up surf size overnight into Tuesday, mainly across Northern NSW (average 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere). 

Lingering S’ly winds may affect a few location on Tuesday however most spots should revert back to morning offshores.

North of the border, I can’t see there being much surf on offer throughout SE Qld on Monday or Tuesday.

Wednesday is where things really start to get interesting. 

A small long period south swell will push up the NSW coast, generated by a strong front pushing below Tasmania on Sunday and Monday, before nosing into the Tasman Sea. Again, only south facing beaches south of Byron will pick up any size but - going against the model guidance - we may see some 2-3ft sets at the swell magnets on Wednesday, and conditions should be clean with light offshore winds. Again, SE Qld will remain tiny.

Freshening W/NW winds all day will precede a major front and low dropping into the Tasman Sea (see below) that will build large S’ly swells across Southern NSW on Wednesday, perhaps starting to appear across the Mid North Coast later in the day but likely to show best Thursday with size into the 6-8ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron, persisting into Friday morning.

North of the border won’t pick up anywhere near as much size, but we are on target for 3-4ft sets across the semi-exposed SE Qld points under ideal S/SW winds. 

Strong followup systems behind this should maintain 4-6ft surf across Northern NSW into next weekend, with continuing small but fun waves throughout SE Qld.

Have a great weekend.. see you Monday!