South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow easing with plenty of size through Thurs and offshore winds
• Nice mop up day Fri with offshore winds
• Small S swell Sat SW-S winds- late kick in new S swell in NENSW
• Stronger S swell Sun, extending into Mon
• Small surf Tues/Wed next week
• Small SE pulse likely Thurs
• Long range E/SE groundswell Thurs/Fri, favouring SEQLD for size

Recap

Still very vigorous surf yesterday in NENSW with size to 5-6ft, easing a little during the day and offshore winds most of the day. Today has rebuilt with solid 6ft+ surf ( a few 8ft sets) under offshore winds. SEQLD has seen much smaller 3-4ft surf at S swell magnets and northern corners, with a few tiny peelers elsewhere.

Still pumping in NENSW today with offshore winds and sunny skies

This week (Jun 19-21)

995 hPa low still sitting in the Central Tasman, but the supporting high pressure cell has slipped in underneath the low and as a result we’re seeing a slowly diminishing fetch and easing pressure gradients both in the Tasman and along the coastal fringe. Incredibly the low remains in the Tasman, right through the week and into the weekend, re-energised by an approaching cut-off low and trough and a new supporting high pressure cell. In comparison to the current event it’s a much more subdued system but we will see a rebuild in S’ly swells from it over the weekend. Details below.

In the short run, no change to the outlook. We’ll see slowly easing surf through tomorrow with offshore winds, which should lay down and tend variable before possibly tending N’ly as the interior low/trough approaches. Still plenty of swell, with 4-5ft of size widespread and a few 6ft sets on offer at exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets, tiny elsewhere.

Winds out of Cook Strait and adjacent to the North Island look better aimed at Tasmania but we’ll still see some SE energy show on Fri, along with easing S/SE swells. Expect 3 occ. 4ft surf Fri morning at S exposed breaks in NENSW , dropping back to 2 occ. 3ft during the day. Very smaller in SEQLD with the occ. 2ft set at the best swell magnets. Winds look good. W-W/NW through the morning and then tending W/SW-SW through the a’noon as the trough exits and the stationary Tasman Low starts to wind up again. Should be a great mop up day to end a memorable week.

This weekend (June 22-23)

Redeveloping winds and swells later this weekend as the reinvigorated Tasman Low tightens pressure gradients along the coast and in the Tasman.  Sat should start small with offshore winds, and remain small in SEQLD. By lunch-time we’ll see freshening S’lies along the NENSW coast and an a’noon increase in new S swell is likely, up to the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks. 

Bigger and windier on Sun with a fresh S’ly flow after a window of SW winds up to mid-morning. Fairly sizey but short period S-S/SE swell should be up over 4-5ft at S exposures in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. It won’t be anything amazing but there will be a rideable wave on offer SUN, favouring NENSW due to swell direction.

Next week (June 24 onwards)

It’s generally an easing trend early next week, although there a couple of swell sources in the South Pacific worth keeping an eye on, favouring the sub-tropics at this stage.

The general trend will be down though as the incredibly persistent Tasman Low drifts over towards New Zealand with a weakening fetch. We should see some workable S-S/SE swell through Mon with improving winds, likely at least in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft in SEQLD. S’ly winds should be easing with a morning SW flow. 

Easing further into Tues with winds tending to light offshores and a’noon SE-E breezes. 

We may see a little bump in S/SE swell later Thurs as remnants of the low near the South Island provide last one pulse (see below). No great size expected and models aren’t in terrific agreement. We wouldn’t expect anything bigger than 2-3ft but winds should be offshore as a front approaches from the west, so it may be worth pencilling in at this early stage.

Especially so because models are also suggesting a deep sub-tropical low in Tongan longitudes right on the edge of the swell window (see below), which looks to supply some long period E/SE swell through Thurs into Fri. It’s a long travel distance but swells from these sources do tend to over perform wave model estimations so 3 occ. 4ft sets are on the menu with light W-NW winds. More importantly this swell should favour SEQLD, particularly the Sunshine Coast, if you can allow for very long waits for sets.

 EC is also suggesting a possible low north of the North Island last next week, again right on the edge of the swell window.  We’ll see how that one is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then.