South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jun 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller Sat (still plenty of size) rebuilding later in the day with mod SW winds
• Stronger again Sun with  SW winds
• Pumping S/SE swells Mon, holding Tues with offshore winds
• Slow easing with plenty of size through Wed into Thurs and offshore winds

Recap

S swell yesterday built into the 6ft+ range in NENSW (bigger at S facing river bars) with S swell magnets in SEQLD showing 3-4ft of surf. SW winds held most of the day. Surf has eased into this morning with size in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, and some 3ft surf across SEQLD S facing beaches and Northern Corners. Clean conditions were on offer with morning offshore winds, now tending light S’ly to variable.

S swell making to the North corners on the Sunshine Coast

This weekend (June 15 - 16)

No great change to the broadscale pattern this weekend. A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful S/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected. 

The S’ly flow looks to stiffen through Sat so get in early for a morning W-SW flow before winds freshen late morning into after lunch. We’ll see a mod S swell to 3-4ft in NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD, rebuild to 3-5ft later in the a’noon in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Keep expectations pegged low due to the wind. Smaller surf in more protected locations will be on the menu including a few smaller peelers across outer points.

By Sunday we’ll see the retrograding low and high well to the south of Tasmania tighten pressure gradients along the SE of the country so expect mod/fresh SW winds with a morning W-W/SW flow across most of the region. Strong winds to low end gales will rebuild S’ly swells late in the day. Expect surf to start in the 3-4ft range at S exposures, building to 4-6ft in the a’noon across NENSW S exposed breaks. Take off 2ft for SEQLD. 

Next week (June 17 onwards)

No change to the size estimates for Mon. We’re still looking at very large 6 occ. 8ft surf from the S/SE building further in the a’noon with some 10ft sets possible across NENSW, smaller 4-6ft in SEQLD with the possibility of a few bigger sets at the best swell magnets. Winds look great- light offshore for most of the morning, tending to patches of E-NE seabreeze in SEQLD but remaining SW-S in NENSW.

Tuesday will still be solid with 8ft+ sets, possibly a few bigger outliers at big wave spots in NENSW and smaller 4-6ft surf at S exposed breaks in SEQLD with a slow easing trend through the day. Similar winds to Mon, lingering offshore breezes with patches of light seabreeze in the a’noon, possibly extending down to NENSW. 

Similar winds for Wed with a slight N’ly bias through the day so there may be some devil wind (W/NW-NW) in the morning. There’ll be a broad spectrum of E quadrant winds feeding into the low early next week which should see swells from the SE through Wed and into Thurs. Likely still in the 4-6ft range Wed and easing to 3-4ft through Thurs. Hopefully with plenty of high quality banks to go with the  A grade conditions.

Further ahead and offshore winds are likely to continue into the weekend. We may see a weaker front join the decaying low but at this stage windspeeds look modest so we’re looking at a small pulse in S swell possible later next Sat and extending into Sun.

Plenty to stay focussed on in the meantime. Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!