South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range E/SE groundswell Thurs, easing Fri favouring SEQLD for size but very, very inconsistent across the board (nothing between sets)
• Mostly offshore winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon
• Small this weekend favouring logs and beginners
• Small into next week
• Next swell from the S-SE likely to build later Tues or into Wed with mod/fresh SW-S winds
• Plenty of SE swell into the end of next week with S-SE winds

Recap

Small and clean surf yesterday hovered in the 2ft range in NENSW, mostly from the S/SE. A few small sets from the E/SE showed right on dark and they have persisted into today with light winds and very, very Inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets on offer. Tiny to flat in between sets so nothing in between the long waits for sets. Just enough to get a shortboard up on the plane for shredders but a great day for longer boards and beginners. 

A few lines on the Sunshine Coast beachies this morning- needed a good bank to make sense of it

This week (June 26-28)

As mentioned in Mondays notes, the Tasman sea is benign this week with a weak high cell sitting over NSW and slowly moving into the Tasman. All the action remains in the Bight and SW corner with a complex series of slow moving cut-off lows in that region (see Craigs’ Victorian/WA notes for details). Our benign outlook runs into the weekend and right through it so there’ll be a few days better suited for rockfishing/inshore diving ahead. Finally, early next week one of the cut-off lows moves into the Tasman with a sizey S swell spike expected before a smaller regime of S-SE swells and winds from the same direction as a southwards situated high maintains a ridge along the sub-tropical coast.

No major swell sources for the rest of the week so expect very low energy surf zones. As mentioned Mon, there may be the very occ. 2-3ft sets across open beaches from the E/SE, generated last weekend but this swell signal will be very faint so expect long periods of tiny/flat surf in between sets. Still, conditions should be dreamy with offshore winds most of both days, more W/NW tomorrow, W/SW-SW Fri before ending up in light/variable flows Thurs and mod S’lies on Fri. If you can find a little bank it may be worth waiting for the sets. 

This weekend (June 29-30)

Hard to see much of interest this weekend. Sat looks tiny/flat with a developing NW flow as the cut-off low approaches. Light NE-E/NE seabreezes so conditions will be clean if you want to look around magnets for a tiny wave. 

The N’ly fetch we identified on Mon, now looks weak and poorly positioned for surf generation. We’ll take a last look at it on Fri but at this stage Sun also is looking tiny, possibly with a few just rideable side-winders from the N-NE. Expect NW winds which will shift  N’ly at moderate speeds during the day and possibly NW late in the day as a low shifts E or NE of Tasmania. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

By Mon morning we should a low NE of Tas with a secondary system further away in the Tasman towards the South Island. The proximate fetch of strong winds to low end gales will initially see freshening NW tending W’ly winds through Mon. 

We probably won’t see any increase in swell until Tues but we’ll fine-tune that on Fri. At this stage pencil in another tiny day Mon, possibly with a late kick in new S swell across the MNC if the evolution of the low is bought forwards

Tuesday looks a safer bet with a strong spike in S swell expected, pushing up into the 4-5ft range through the day in NENSW, smaller 2ft by close of play in SEQLD. Winds will swing from W to SW-S during the day so S facing beaches will likely be blown out. 

Strong S swell again Wed, under current modelling with a broad fetch of S’ly strong winds in the Tasman supplying 4-6ft of S swell in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Regional points will probably be the go under fresh SW tending S’ly winds.

We should see winds remain S-SE next week as high pressure slides Eastwards and holds a firm ridge up the Sub-tropical to tropical coast with a broad area of low pressure north of the North Island. Models are suggesting a fetch lingering near New Zealand and across the Northern Tasman with plenty of  fun sized SE-E/SE swells later next week. At a minimum there should be a few small peelers on the Points.

Confidence is low this far out but we’ll definitely see more action next week, even if winds look a bit iffy.

Check back Fri for the latest look at it.

Seeya then.