South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf Tues- possibly a few small sets from the E/SE in the a'noon
• Long range E/SE groundswell Wed/Thurs, easing Fri favouring SEQLD for size but very inconsistent across the board
• Mostly offshore winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon
• Small this weekend favouring logs and beginners
• Small into next week
• Next swell from the S-SE likely to build later Tues or into Wed- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Nothing too exciting over the weekend with tiny surf for most of Sat- just a small increase in S swell in NENSW not exceeding 2-3ft at S exposures. Sunday was only marginally better, with a few 3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. This morning is nice and clean with classic winter offshore W-SW conditions and around 3ft of surf from a slightly better S/SE direction, offering up some fun options across NENSW with much smaller 1-2ft surf in SEQLD.

A bit of S'ly energy across NENSW but no real quality to it

This week (June 24-28)

All the action is in the Bight at the moment, with a deep slow moving  cut-off low. The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. A sub-tropical low on the other side of the North Island is completely blocked from our swell window by that Island. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds. Details below.

Not a great deal to froth over this week with tomorrow morning seeing a few clean leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft at NENSW swell magnets , dropping back to 2ft or less in the a’noon. Nice clean conditions with W tending NW winds and a light N’ly in the a’noon. Expect more tiny surf in SEQLD with just the odd set from the E/SE to 2ft in the a’noon.

Small again through Wed and into Thurs. A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 2ft than 3ft with just the occ bigger set, more likely on the Sunshine Coast beachies. Clean conditions in the morning with a W-NW flow, tending N/NW to N in the a’noon at strengths that will blow out most spots apart from backbeaches.

The trough and a weak front push through Fri with W winds and an a’noon S/SE-SE winds. Nothing much in it- remaining tiny, with minor S swell signal possibly lifting wave heights to 1 occ. 2ft at the best S swell magnets and just a few stray 2ft waves from the E. 

This weekend (June 29-30)

Light/mod SW-S winds Sat as a weak ridge builds up the coast in the wake of the front on Fri. Nothing much as far as surf goes though- a bit of minor S/SE windswell to 1-2ft at best and some small, stray remnants of E swell with very, very occ. 2ft sets at open exposures.

Winds shift pre-frontal N’ly on Sun,  likely freshening up in the a’noon. No swell at all to speak of, with most beaches tiny to flat. Possibly a longboard wave on offer at a few backbeaches.

Next week (July 1 onwards)

Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and low entering the Tasman next week. It’s likely to be tiny on Mon and Tues and offshore before we see a building trend in S swell later Tues or into Wed. 

Both major models are then suggesting some sort of low moving either into the Central Tasman, or further north (see below).

That would generate S tending SE swells by mid week, with winds likely from the same direction. 

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.