South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon Jun 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Average south swell for Tues (tiny in SE Qld)
• Small leftovers Wed (tiny in SE Qld)
• Large windy south swell for Thurs, best inside NNSW's sheltered corners/points and across SE Qld's outer points
• Size easing Fri but stil remaining strong
• Very large S/SE tending SE swells for NNSW Sat/Sun (smaller but still solid SE Qld), probably with fresh SW winds
• Large S'ly swells expected early next week (smaller in SE Qld)

Recap

Saturday morning was tiny, but by late morning most beaches were seeing new E’ly swell which then peaked late afternoon and overnight before easing slowly through Sunday. Open beaches in Northern NSW managed 3ft+ sets, with slightly smaller surf north of the border.  A small south swell also filled in across Northern NSW on Sunday and has maintained 2-3ft sets into this morning (south of Byron) though size is now easing. It’s been clean each day with light offshore winds, though freshening S/SW winds are now sweeping up the coast with a change. 

Coffs Harbour showing the east swell nicely pre-dawn on Sunday

This week (Jun 11 - 14)

There’s a lot of activity on the boil from the south.

The main synoptic activity this week will be related to an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough which is expected to slide through the Tasman Sea before parking itself across New Zealand longitudes later in the week. We’ll see a prolonged round of large to very large swell in Northern NSW as a result (with smaller though still-strong surf in SE Qld).

But we have a few days to go until things really kick into gear.

First up, Tuesday will deliver an average, easing mix of south swells from today (background S’ly energy and temporary short period energy trailing this afternoon’s late change), however only south facing beaches south of Byron will see any appreciable size (around 3ft) and they’ll be wind affected. 

Elsewhere expect small average surf, including much of SE Qld which won’t really pick up much of this short period energy. Overnight S’ly winds will probably swing to the SW in many spots. 

Wednesday will then see similarly small background S’ly swells with freshening W/NW tending W/SW winds ahead of a late S/SW change (along the lower Mid North Coast) as a strong front and low pushes into the Tasman Sea. Many beaches will be tiny to flat but south swell magnets - particularly those south from Yamba - may pick up a few 2ft waves from a front that pushed up under the waters south of Tasmania on Sunday. 

Thursday is where things really get active. A deep Tasman Low will have been forming from Wednesday onwards, displaying a broad belt of S/SW winds that’ the entire length of the eastern seaboard, from the southern tip of Tasmania up to about Mackay (and about halfway across to New Zealand) - see below. 

These winds will generate late S’ly swells for Northern NSW - up around 6-8ft at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron - but these spots will be heavily wind affected so you’ll need to look for some shelter, where surf size will be much smaller.

Across SE Qld we’ll see wave heights around 3-4ft across the semi-exposed sand bottom points, they’ll handle the breezy southerly winds the best (south swell magnets will be bigger but wind affected). Sheltered inner points will however be very small. Expect a fair degree of inconsistency in the sets north of the border too, owing to its off-axis alignment.

A gradual easing of size and winds will then occur into Friday, though south facing beaches south from Byron will probably remain up in the 5-6ft range, and still likely wind affected. As such you’ll have to continue to seek out sheltered corners. 

SE Qld will also see easing size on Friday, the semi exposed points should still manage occasional 2-3ft sets but expect size and consistency to ease back through the day. Exposed south facing beaches should offer bigger sets in the 3-5ft range and we may see workable options at these spots as the local winds become light through the morning. 

As a side note, the Mid North Coast may see a late kick in new southerly swell on Friday, generated by a strong secondary front wrapping around the primary Tasman Low. Confidence isn’t high on specifics right now and at this stage there’s a fair chance that this pulse may get pushed back to Saturday morning... This will become clearer over the coming days as the models consolidate.

This weekend (June 15 - 16)

Whilst models are not totally in lockstep for the weekend’s surf outlook, the broadscale trend is quite convergent right now - which is unusual at such a long lead time. 

With the LWT anchoring into position over New Zealand we’ll see polar fronts push north around its western flank, aiming straight into Southern NSW’s S thru’ SE swell window.

Some of the models are suggesting very large surf building Saturday and peaking Sunday - so let’s just keep a lid on our expectations for now - but as a minimum, I think a baseline of 6-8ft surf both days across Northern NSW is quite reasonable, and I’d give the chances for a significant upgrade in the coming days a medium weighting right now. 

SE Qld will see smaller surf however this source and direction is much better than standard southerly swells so we could be looking at a peak around 3-5ft across the semi-exposed points and 6ft+ at south swell magnets (with the same upgrade caveat as above).

Of course, this pattern will be accompanied with fresh winds from the SW quadrant, but the prolonged nature of this synoptic blocking pattern - resulting in a ‘fully developed sea state’ - will increase the energy levels compared to that generated by a solitary swell system. It's shaping up to be a very powerful weekend of waves throughout the state.

Let’s see how Wednesday’s models are looking.

Next week (June 17 onwards)

What kind of optimist are you?

Right now the models are suggesting that this blocking pattern will remain in place for a few more days, which suggests elevated, powerful south swells will persist across Northern NSW through the first half of next week (remaining smaller but still strong in SE Qld). 

Of course, that’s still a long time away and we have a lot of surf to get through between now and then. But, it’s looking like your step-up is gonna get plenty of action over the coming week or two.

See you Wednesday!