South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large windy south swell for Thurs, best inside NNSW's sheltered corners/points and across SE Qld's outer points
• Size easing Fri but still remaining strong
• Smaller Sat (still plenty of size) rebuilding later in the day with mod SW winds
• Stronger again Sun with lighter SW winds
• Pumping S/SE swells Mon, holding Tues with offshore winds
• Slow easing with plenty of size through Wed into Thurs and offshore winds

Recap

Small S swells yesterday offered up a few fun waves in the 2ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, with generally tiny surf in SEQLD under light winds. We’re on the cusp of a major S’ly swell series tomorrow but before it arrives we have bottomed out with tiny 1-2ft surf this morning under pre-frontal NW-W winds which started off light. We’ll see strong SW  winds develop this a’noon, with a very late kick in S swell possible across the MNC.

Red sky at morning, sailors take warning

This week (Jun 12 - 14)

As Ben mentioned in Monday’s notes we have a favourably positioned node of the long wave trough ready to steer a strong cold front well into sub-tropical latitudes in the Tasman and Southern Coral Seas. Following that a secondary front coalesces with the primary front to form a complex Tasman which is expected to occupy the Tasman for a meaningful period of time, even retrograding back towards the East Coast over the weekend. The result will be multiple swell pulses from the S to S/SE (some very significant) right through until mid next week. Just as a caveat there is still a bit of model variance from run to run so we’ll continue to expect some more revision/fine-tuning as we get closer to the event. Let’s break it down.

The short run looks locked in with a  proximate fetch of strong winds to low end gales generating an initial surge in close range S swell. That should see a raw signal of S swell building to 6-8ft at S exposures with bigger 10ft surf across more exposed S facing river bars in NENSW and building to 4-5ft in SEQLD at S exposed breaks. Sheltered spots will be significantly smaller with some small peelers across the Outer Points on the Gold Coast, but morning SW or even W/SW winds  may offer some semi-sheltered options picking up more of the size. SW tending S/SW-S winds should hold fresh to strong wind strength through the day. 

Friday looks to be a valley after the peak on Thurs passes. A mix of shorter range and better quality S swells will see energy in the 4-6ft range at S exposures in NENSW with smaller 3-4ft surf at SEQLD S facing beaches.  Pressure gradients should relax enough for morning SW breezes, although a bit of S’ly sea state will still be across exposed breaks and surf is likely to be still overpowering beachbreaks in NENSW. Winds are expected to lay down in the a’noon. We should see a slight easing trend in the a’noon but heaps of size and energy is still expected, even off you have to sacrifice some to find cleaner conditions. 

This weekend (June 15 - 16)

A secondary front  looks to send reinforcing S swell pulse arriving later Sat. That should see a boost in S swell later Sat, back up to the 4-6ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW after smaller 3-5ft surf through the morning and post lunch sessions. We may need to adjust timing for this on Fri- but there’ll be plenty of swell to work with. SEQLD will see smaller 2-3ft surf, building a notch later in the day. Winds looks good, light SW for most of the day with a chance of a weak S/SE flow in the a’noon.

Gales wrapping around the SW flank of the low as it retrogrades back to the coast over the weekend are expected to supply a major pulse of S-S/SE energy (see below). We may see some of new energyshow later Sun, although later Mon into Tues now looks to the be the peak of the swell for the sub-tropical f/vast region.

Still, plenty of size Sun, likely again up in the 6ft range at S exposures in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Winds look to tend more SW-W/SW as the low sits in the Central Tasman. 

Next week (June 17 onwards)

Monday looks big. How big? Current modelling suggests size building through the day into the 6-8ft range in NENSW, smaller 4-5ft in SEQLD and with direction more S/SE we’ll see a broader spread of large surf compared to a straight S direction. Winds from the W-W/SW tend SW through the day so a large range of spots should be holding clean, large surf. Lots of heavy water so experts only. 

Expect that size to hold into Tues morning, possibly even peaking during this period.

The low is expected to occupy the Tasman for the better part of next week, slowly dissipating through this time frame (see below). If this holds we’re looking at very slow easing trend of large surf through next week with offshore winds for the most part. 

Pencil in large 8ft surf Tues AM, easing back to 5-6ft Wed and 4-5ft Thurs. Adjust size down by 2ft for SEQLD.

We’ll use those for ballpark figures for now and adjust on Fri.

Lots of strong surf at a minimum, with good/great conditions.

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend and we’ll see how next week is shaping up.

Seeya then.