Elsewhere, it’s a bland pattern with a dormant Coral Sea. Cold fronts later this week and over the weekend will supply some minor S swell favouring NENSW S facing beaches.
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For our sub-tropical region the main swell source will be a proximate N’ly fetch extending up to water adjacent to the CQ coast and holding a workable NE windswell.
An approaching inland trough will freshen northerlies about most coasts on Sunday, so make the most of Saturday.
We’ve got building trade swells for the next few days, and a weakening synoptic pattern in the north, that will result in light variable winds and sea breezes in most northern areas.
I like the look of these weather charts.
Wednesday is where we’ll start to see a gradual increase in new trade swell from a broad easterly fetch developing from this weekend onwards.
The rest of the week looks very ordinary for SE Qld, mainly due to a freshening northerly flow.
We're now at the peak of the swell cycle from STC Jasper so it's a slow dowards trend for the rest of the week.
It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.
TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a smaller surf potential compared to Mondays notes as it crosses the coast instead of tracking through the Coral Sea.