South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Oct 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of short/mid S and SE swells developing later Tues, extending into Wed with mod/fresh S-SE winds from Tues PM
• Stronger S'ly swell due Northern NSW on Thurs with easing winds
• Another S'ly swell due for Northern NSW from Sat PM
• Stronger S swell Sun in NENSW with fresh S/SE winds
• Easing S-SE swells from Mon with easing winds
• Flukey S groundswell for NENSW later Tues/Wed
• Possible E’ly tradeswell later next week- low confidence check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Mixed bag over the weekend with solid swells from the S but generally poor winds (and bad banks!) putting a ceiling on wave quality. Sat was solid in NENSW with S facing beaches in the 4-5ft range (6ft sets at S magnets) but only a brief window of lighter NW winds before mod/fresh N’lies. Smaller 2 occ. 3ft surf in SEQLD didn’t offer much.  Still some waves Sun in NENSW on an easing swell with 3-4ft of surf brushed by more favourable W/NW tending NW-N winds. Only tiny in SEQLD. The easing trend continued overnight and this morning has beautiful conditions with offshore winds but only a few small leftovers in the 1-2ft range. N’lies are now kicking up.

Solid S swells at S magnets in NENSW

Better for fishing in SEQLD

This week (Oct7-11)

We’ve currently got a cold front linked to a compact parent low moving across and SE of Tasmania with high pressure tracking through the bight towards Victoria. That will bring a robust S’ly change tomorrow and some workable S swell for temperate NSW, with a trough in the sub-tropics tilting the change more S/SE-SE later tomorrow into Wed. That will be the main swell source this week with another trough, then front of similar strength arriving late this week or Sat and bringing some S’ly windswell Fri before another pulse of S swell over the weekend.

In the short run the S’ly change will be moving up the coast tomorrow, reaching Coffs around 8am, Byron-Ballina by just after lunch, and the border later in the a’noon. Before the change we’ll see NW winds in SEQLD with lighter W’lies around a troughy area from Tweed to Yamba. We’ll see some small S’ly windswell develop after lunch to 2-3ft at exposed breaks on the MNC, not much elsewhere. 

A weak ridge and lingering trough off the SEQLD coast following the change leaves a mod/fresh easing SE flow Wed. No great quality on offer but we’ll see a small blend of short and mid period S and SE swells to 2-3ft across open beaches in the morning and some small peelers across more protected Points. 

 Winds ease through Thurs with mod SE breezes tending lighter E’ly and E/NE south of Yamba. We’ll see continuing short range SE-E/SE swell to 2-3ft, with a better quality (longer period) S pulse to 3ft across NENSW S exposed breaks, generated by an intensification in the fetch in the south-eastern Tasman . 

N’ly winds start to establish Fri as another trough and front approach from the W. Should be some clean leftovers to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW for the early, fading out pretty quickly. Not much of interest in SEQLD, just a small 1 occ. 2ft wave at open beaches, best early before the wind gets up.

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

Plenty of S’ly wind is expected to develop Sat as a high pressure ridge builds in behind a trough/front. We’ll see early light W/NW-NW winds with the S’ly change across NENSW by mid morning and reaching the QLD border by early a’noon. Not much surf for the early with small E’ly swells to 1-2ft (tops). We’ll see a late kick in new S’ly windswell across the MNC to 2-3ft, possibly tickling the Yamba-Byron region by close of play.

We’ll see a robust mix of S swells through Sun, mostly short/mid period so keep expectations pegged low for quality. Size in the 3-5ft range across S exposed breaks in NENSW, grading smaller 2-3ft at S facing breaks in SEQLD. Lots of S-S/SE wind though so surfing will be confined to more protected spots with some small peelers on the Points likely the best of it. 

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

Nothing major on the radar next week at least as far as our near swell window is concerned. A polar low passing through the Southern ocean late next weekend (see below) looks to send some long period S swell up the pipe early next week. Models are still divergent over the strength of the low so expect some revisions but for now, we’ll pencil in some 3ft surf from the S arriving late Tues and extending into Wed before easing.

Monday should see some fun leftover SE swell to 3ft with light S-SE winds tending E-NE’ly in the a’noon.

We may see N’lies continue into Tues Wed but there’s low confidence in the wind outlook due to lingering troughiness in the Tasman. 

We may see some trade flow develop next week near New Caledonia and there’s a potential low pressure system in Tahitian longitudes we’ll flag for now. Neither of those swell sources look locked in for now.

We’ll see how that is shaping up when we come back on Wed.

Seeya then.