South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Oct 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S-S/SE swells from low in Tasman, persisting into Thurs with light morning winds tending N’ly
• Small blend of swells Fri with increasing N’ly winds
• Small NE windswell Sat with fresh NW-N winds, before a late S’ly change on the MNC
• S’ly winds Sun persisting into Mon/Tues with sizey S swells developing
• Now tracking a low forming near Fiji expected to send good quality E swell our way as it moves through swell window, arriving  Mon, persisting Tues/Wed with generally favourable winds

Recap

Not much yesterday with small swells and N’ly winds before a S’ly change arrived across the North Coast from mid-morning before stalling on the border. A small increase in S swell was observed across the North Coast, not much north of the border. Conditions have improved this morning with light land breezes and clean surf to 2-3ft+ in NENSW- a mix of shorter range SE and longer period S swells. SEQLD has remained tiny with small E’ly swells to 1-2ft. Winds are expected to tend to E-NE breezes through the a’noon. 

MNC picked up the most size from the S/SE and S with clean morning conditions

This week (Oct 16-18)

We still have low pressure roughly due east of the NSW/Victorian border buttressed by high pressure near New Zealand. It’s not a very strong system but we did see a little flare up on the southern flank o/night into this morning before the system began to dissipate, although it is expected to linger in the central Tasman. We’ll see a low skirting the Bight approach from the west result in freshening N’lies over the short term before entering the Tasman on the weekend, bringing another round of south winds and swell. In the tropics a trough deepening between Vanuatu and Fiji forms a broad surface low which tracks southwards through the wide open South Pacific slot between the North Island and tropical island chains, generating some tasty E’ly swell next week.

In the short run, we’ll see a continuation in S/SE swell from the Tasman Low, in the 2 occ. 3ft range tomorrow across NENSW, remaining small 1-2ft in SEQLD. Early winds look to be light and from the NW before clocking around N then NE and freshening.

Small leftovers from the S/SE-SE on Fri with a few 2ft sets, easing back to tiny through the day. N’ly winds really freshen on Fri as the low approaches Tasmania and we should see some workable NE windswell by close of play from the proximate fetch which builds along the NSW coastline. Nothing huge but a few 2 footers, favouring areas south of Ballina.

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

The low drives a N’ly flow across the region through Sat morning tending NW’ly as a trough approaches up the coast . This trough brings a S’ly change to the MNC around lunchtime, reaching the border just after dark.  Sat morning should see some workable leftover NE windswell to 2ft with clean conditions before wave heights take a nosedive for the a’noon.

Sun looks a different story. The low looks to absorb the remnants of the current low and build quite an impressive fetch of S’ly quarter winds extending from Tasmania up towards the sub-tropics. That will see quite a step-up in size through Sun and into Mon, but winds won’t be as kind, being mod/fresh from the S. Expect size to build from 2-3ft to 3-4ft on Sun, smaller surf obviously at more sheltered locations and into SEQLD.

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

Our reconstituted low moves NE into the Tasman early next week, with high pressure sliding under it. This will maintain a S’ly flow through Mon and into Tues/Wed before pressure gradients ease.

Sizey S swells into Mon under current modelling with size to 4-6ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD and easing and tending more S/SE-SE on Tues. 

At this stage S’ly winds will confine surfing to more protected locations Mon, with easing winds possibly opening up a few more locations on Tues. 

While this is happening we’ll be expecting the arrival of good quality E swell from the passage of the tropical low through the South Pacific slot.

Under current modelling we should see this swell start to show later Mon and fill in Tues with 4-5ft sets by close of play.

Wed looks be the best conditions available with this E swell with 3-4ft (occ. 5ft possible) sets and light winds. Morning offshores tending to light SE breezes look prime. 

E’ly swells then tail off through Thurs with a few small leftovers possible Fri. 

Further ahead we may see the approach of another low from the W, suggesting another swell from the S, possibly as early as next weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.