South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Oct 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Flukey S groundswell for NENSW later Tues/Wed
• Small E’ly trade swell in the mix next week
• Modest increase in S-S/SE swells Tues PM from low in Tasman, persisting into Wed/Thurs 
• Small blend of swells Fri with increasing N’ly winds
• Small NE windswell Sat with fresh NW-N winds, before a late S’ly change on the MNC
• S’ly winds Sun persisting into Mon/Tues with short range S swells developing
• Now tracking a low forming near Fiji expected to send good quality E swell our way as it moves through swell window, arriving late Sun into Mon, persisting Tues easing Wed with generally favourable winds

Recap

A few small fun waves over the weekend if you could find a good bank with Sat probably the best of it. NENSW saw some small S and E swells to 2 occ. 3ft with Bluewater and light winds, a notch smaller into SEQLD. Sun was a bit of a mess with S-SE winds blowing out most spots and a blend of S and E swells to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Today has seen easing winds with small leftovers to 2-3ft in NENSW, 2ft or less in SEQLD. Winds are now tending N-NE at moderate paces.

Nice conditions Sat morning with some fun sized swells

This week (Oct 14-18)

We’ve still got a dynamic week ahead as a trough currently off the Gippsland coast moves NE and develops into a broad surface low, backed by a high currently SW of Tasmania. Overall though, the surf potential has been toned down as windspeeds remain limiting and the system dissipates as it lingers in the Tasman. Surf now looks fun without being spectacular. A polar low passing to the south is sending long period S swells up the pipe. A modest but broad trade fetch in the Coral Sea is supplying some small E’ly tradeswell. Further ahead we’ll be watching a developing tropical low near Fiji which looks to develop and track in a southerly direction through the wide open South Pacific swell window and send some tasty mid period E’ly swell our way next week. Details below. 

In the short run we’ll see light NW-N winds early, freshening in SEQLD. A S’ly change from the deepening trough will be working it’s way north, reaching Coffs early morning before stalling on the North Coast in the a’noon. Winds in SEQLD should remain N’ly with variable winds around the stalled trough across the Far North Coast. Tiny leftovers for the most part, tending to small E’ly swells in SEQLD, with a small, late kick in short range S swell across the MNC. We’ll also see the leading edge of some new S groundswell show on the MNC late in the a’noon but with mod/fresh S’ly winds it’ll hard to find a spot making use of it. 

Pressure gradients ease off quickly o/night Tues into Wed as the trough stalls out around the QLD border so we’ll see light winds, likely land breezes, likely tending to E-NE breezes in the a’noon. Long period S swells to 3ft in NENSW along with S/SE swells to 2-3ft should offer up some fun options in NENSW with smaller tradewind surf to 2 occ. 3ft in SEQLD. 

Tricky winds expected for Thurs as the trough line remains stalled off the Far North Coast/Border region. We likely see light land breezes from the W-W/NW tend to light NE seabreezes in the a’noon but we may see some SE-E wind south of the trough line on the MNC (areas south of Yamba). That should see widespread clean conditions for the morning. S/SE swell looks to hold in the 3ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD, depending on the evolution of the low through Tues. 

Easing swells into Fri. Small leftovers expected as the low will have dissipated. We should see 2ft surf for the morning with light winds, tending freshening N’ly in the a’noon as a complex inland low approaches from the W. That may generate some  NE windswell for the a’noon session. We’ll see how that fetch looks on Wed. Models are offering mixed messages there, but there is some potential for workable NE windswell developing during Fri especially south of Ballina.

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

Looks like the approaching low moves SW-SE below Tasmania, into the weekend, driving a freshening N to NW’ly flow across the region with a late S change on the MNC. No great size to the surf though with small windswell from the NE (2-3ft) and minor leftover S swell.

With the low moving SE of Tasmania Sat we should see swell generating fetches out of Bass Strait and SE of Tasmania as well as S’ly winds from the bulldog high pressure ridge behind the change. Early S winds look to tend mod/fresh SE through the day. We’ll finesse through the week but at this stage we should see some workable S swell to 2-3ft, in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD, with low quality surf on offer at most spots.

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

High pressure moves NE into the Tasman next week. We should see a strong ridge with mod/fresh S’ly-SE’ly breezes Mon and some workable, low quality S swells from the passage of the front and low over the weekend. Those S-S/SE swells will persist through Mon-Tues at moderate levels (3-4ft in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD).

The crux of the next swell is a southwards moving tropical depression later this week (see below). This is more of a late Summer, early Autumn feature as the West Pacific warm pool develops seasonal low pressure. At this stage the system moves slowly enough through the swell window to send some fun sized mid period E’ly swell right across the Eastern Seaboard. It should show late Sun into Mon across the sub-tropics, later Mon into Tues across temperate NSW. We’ll peg size for now in the 3-4ft range for SEQLD/NENSW with the occ. bigger set on offer and 3ft through temperate NSW with an occ. bigger set. 

Winds look to be from the SE-E across our region, tending N’ly through Wed during this period although persistent troughiness in the Tasman may see light/variable winds or even a weak S-SE flow.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. 

Seeya then.