South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Oct 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S'ly swell due Northern NSW on Thurs with easing but onshore winds
• Small windswells in SEQLD Thurs, easing Fri
• Small blend of swells Sat AM with light winds before a S’ly change
• Stronger S swell Sun in NENSW with fresh S/SE winds
• Easing S-SE swells from Mon with N’ly winds
• Flukey S groundswell for NENSW later Tues/Wed
• Small E’ly trade swell in the mix next week
• Dynamic outlook with low forming in Tasman so a mix of S swells and E/NE swells are possible (favouring more southern areas)- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Not much to recap with small, minor surf to 2ft or less yesterday clean before S’ly winds kicked up in the a’noon. Building S-SE windswell today with poor conditions under fresh SE winds. Most spots are blown out and junky with 3ft of messy surf in NENSW, 2ft or less in SEQLD.

Nothing pretty about it but it is surfable

This week (Oct9-11)

High pressure is moving NE of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea, weakening and becoming mobile as it does so. That will see a N’ly pattern develop in the temperate regions of NSW with a trough in the north holding a more E'ly wind flow across the sub-tropics. The current S swell will ease through tomorrow with a pair of cold fronts passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri ahead of another trough and high pressure ridge. In short, we’ll see pulses of S swell but favourable winds will be short-lived. Next week looks dynamic with a troughy pattern possibly spawning a surface low off the Central/Southern NSW coast with uncertain surf potential. Let’s dive in.

In the short run nothing special ahead but there will be swell in the water. We’ll see todays SE windswell hold in to 2-3ft, a notch bigger in SEQLD with better quality S swell in the mix to 3-4ft in NENSW. Winds will be the problem with a lingering SE-E/SE flow tending E’ly and NE’ly south of the border. It’ll be very scrappy so keep expectations low, but there will be waves for the keen.

Not great for Fri either with a high moving into the central Tasman and holding a weakening ridge up the sub-tropical coast. That will see E’ly winds for SEQLD, tending more NE south of the border and likely freshening through the day. Best conditions early under light winds but expect lumpy/bumpy surf from the prevailing onshore flow. We’ll see a mix of easing S swell to 2-3ft in NENSW and some short range E/SE swell to 2ft. All pretty grovelly but surfable for the keen.

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

We’ll see a trough move northwards Sat and a weak, troughy area lingering about the area should see the best winds of the week with a light/variable flow through the morning before a S’ly change moves through. The change looks to be in Coffs late morning/lunch-time, possibly stalling or becoming slow moving about the North Coast so expect some revision on winds. Tricky winds notwithstanding we’ll see some small surf for the early in the 1 occ. 2ft range. Fun for kids and logs. 

Winds deteriorate Sun as the high pressure ridge fills in and S-SE winds freshen. There will be some S swell from the frontal progression Fri/Sat into the Tasman (see below) but keep expectations pegged low for quality. We should see size in the 3 occ. 4ft range for S facing beaches in NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD.

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week- nothing much to see there. That will bring a N’ly flow for Mon in NENSW, with a more E’ly flow in SEQLD with a small blend of S and NE windswell to 2ft on the radar. 

From there things get more dynamic. The crux of it is a trough moving NE from Bass Strait which looks to rapidly deepen later Mon, possibly forming a broad surface low in the Tasman. Still lots of model divergence which suggests plenty of revision (possibly major!) ahead as the event gets closer. 

It’s possible we may see an increase in NE-E/NE swell through the middle/latter part of next week from winds infeeding into the trough/low system. Behind that we should see some workable E’ly tradeswell.

Equally likely the low generates winds on the southern flank and we see a steep increase in S swells late Tues/Wed from this fetch.

We’ll also see some long period S groundswell to 3ft  in the mix during this time frame (Tues/Wed) with quality depending on how local winds pan out.

Winds look generally onshore but pockets of lighter breezes definitely look on the cards. Most likely outcome is a mixed bag of swells with a few surfable windows.

Check back in Fri and we’ll have a much clearer idea of how this event will play out as far as surf potential goes. 

Seeya then.