The models have strengthened this system considerably since Wednesday’s notes, so the forecasts correspondingly been upgraded.
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Our primary, near source of trade swell began to weaken yesterday so from here we’re looking at a slow easing trend into Thursday.
We’re now on the backside of the current trade swell event, but the good news is that there’s plenty of fun surf to come.
The synoptics show a strengthening E’ly dip SW of New Caledonia, embedded in the broader trade flow, and plenty of swell generating winds extending further east into the South Pacific
The broader trend of a slow upwards increase from Saturday through Monday is still on track.
In summary: there’s nothing major on the cards for the foreseeable future. But, there will be waves most days with a moderate summer trade pattern expected to remain steady across our eastern swell window
However, large swells are not a crucial ingredient for good surf in this neck of the woods - the key to scoring decent waves is to look for small bumps in swell energy, that coincide with periods of favourable winds
These’ll be the shortest forecast notes in weeks, I tells ya.
No major swells expected this week, and local winds will be variable tending onshore, so surface conditions won’t be terribly good.
We’re still on track for a very large E’ly pulse.