Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 18)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small S swell likely Tues, easing Wed with light onshore winds (E-E/NE)
• Small combo of E and S swells Thurs with light onshore winds, cleanest early
• Slightly better quality S swell Fri under light N-NE winds
• Small NE windswells this weekend
• Small, weak NE windswells and E/NE summer swells first half of next week
• Nothing of any interest on the radar but check back Wed, things change!

Recap

Not much on the table for Sat with small, grovelly SE swell to 2 occ. 3ft and mod onshore E tending E/NE winds. We saw a building trend in NE windswell Sun as winds freshened with size up into the 3-4ft (bigger on the South Coast) range by close of play. Back down to 2-3ft this morning and on the ease with light winds early tending to S then SE breezes at mod paces as a trough passes through then a high pressure ridge builds up the coast.

Chunky building NE windswell Sun a'noon

This week (Nov 18-22)

We’ve got a sharp little front passing under Tasmania at present, with another front and parent low transiting the Tasman Tues/Wed. A large high is approaching from well south of the Bight and expected to occupy the Tasman from Thurs, with a more summer style wind pattern of SE-E winds in the sub-tropics and NE winds in temperate NSW. Tradewinds will supply workable swells for the sub-tropics medium term with small pulses of S swell this week favouring NSW. There is a fetch off the North Island at present that isn’t perfectly aligned but it should add some small E/SE-E swells into the mix this week. 

In the short run we’ll see a little flush of S swell tomorrow, no great size or quality attached to it. The high pressure ridge will set up a weak onshore flow through tomorrow with light S-SE breezes early (SW inshore across the Northern Beaches) before winds clock around to light E-E/NE breezes. SA facing beaches will see modest 2-3ft surf, grading smaller into less exposed beaches. There should be a wave for the keen if you aren’t too fussy.

Winds will continue from that general E-NE direction on Wed so expect a bumpy surf. Tuesday’s pulse winds back, leaving a small leftover S swell to 1-2ft with an E/NE windswell of similar proportions. Traces of slightly longer S swell should keep S facing beaches ticking in the 2ft range. It’ll be a low powered day so keep expectations low.

Similar winds for Thurs- general light E-E/NE flow but remaining in the realm of light breezes so conditions should stay workable all day. We’ll se e a small mix of E swell from the top of the North Island and S swells both in the 2ft range. That does offer up chances of some fun peaky beachies under the combo swell. 

Wed’s stronger frontal passage (see below) looks to supply stronger S swell to end the working week, pushing wave heights up into the 3 occ. 4ft range at S facing beaches and mixed in with easing E swell to 2ft. N’ly tending NE winds should be light NW early so S facing beaches should be clean and workable all day. 

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

Not much action expected this weekend. Friday’s S swell winds back o/night to leave a few small leftovers to 2ft, quickly easing. Slow moving high pressure in the Central Tasman holds a mod N-NE flow across temperate NSW both days. We should see periods of lighter NW winds inshore early with mod nor-easters in the a’noon.

That should start to generate some small, weak NE windswell Sat a’noon - no more than 1-2ft but potentially offering a grovel for the keen.

Rinse and repeat for Sun. Small and weak with some potential rideable NE windswell in the a’noon to 1-2ft. 

Models are also suggesting a front/low flaring as it tracks under New Zealand later this week to send some sideband S swell energy our way for Sun. Best case scenario is some inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets at reliable S swell magnets Sun. Considering the N’ly winds and poor forecast it may be worth working around.

Next week (Nov25 onwards)

Dominant high pressure slowly moves NE next week with the prevailing NE wind remaining established through the early to mid half of the week under current modelling. That suggests small NE windswells and minor E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics,  hovering around the 2ft range Mon-Wed.

We may see a trough bring a S’ly change mid week, with no real surf potential behind it. 

Nothing surfy on the long term either.

Check back Wed for the latest and keep the grovellers handy.