South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th March)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small new E'ly swell with variable winds (light/variable  early, mod onshore from late morning). May not be in the water at dawn Sat though (so be patient!). Most of next week should also have waves though it'll be a little patchy at times. Chance for a return to better surf later next week and the following weekend. 

Recap: Small weak SE swells with light variable winds tending moderate onshore. Totally forgettable both days across all coasts.

This weekend (Mar 5th - 6th)

We’re still on target for a small fun pulse of fresh E’ly swell Saturday morning. This was generated by a modest fetch that developed just north of New Zealand on Wednesday and Thursday, and although not overly strong, it should certainly provide a lift from the lacklustre short range energy that has dominated the past five days. 

At this stage the leading edge is expected to push through shortly after sunrise. As such, I don’t think dawn will reveal anything notable in the surf department, but by early-mid morning it’s possible that some of the more exposed beaches around Far Northern NSW will start to see building energy, and by lunchtime most open stretches should start to see peaky 2-3ft waves, holding into the afternoon. 

Reliable swell magnets in Far Northern NSW should push slightly above this into the late afternoon, but we’re looking at a slowly easing trend throughout Sunday - the early morning may offer a similar size range as per late Saturday but it will certainly become smaller throughout the day.

Expect smaller surf across the various points; there won’t be a lot of push in this swell so exposed beaches will certainly be your best choice. 

As for local winds - I'm not expecting much change to what we’ve seen in recent days - an early light variable flow tending offshore, before a mid-morning swing to some form of onshore (probably SE thru’ E/SE) of moderate strength. So mornings will offer the best waves but there’ll be workable options into the afternoons too.

Next week (Mar 7th onwards)

As per the forecast notes issued Wednesday and Monday, there are still no significant features expected into the longer term.

However, large swells are not a crucial ingredient for good surf in this neck of the woods - the key to scoring decent waves is to look for small bumps in swell energy, that coincide with periods of favourable winds.

To that end, we have a couple of interesting weather systems that I’ll be keeping an eye on for next week. To quickly summarise - we’ve got a blocking pattern across the Tasman Sea at the moment, with a stubborn high and a weak trough of low pressure across the Coral Sea. 

The fetch that generated tomorrow’s E’ly swell has been lingering about Northern New Zealand for the last few days, and a small easterly dip contained within is expected to retrograde westwards. This sounds a little more exciting that it actually is (wind speeds won't be terribly strong), however in the absence of anything notable, it’s worth keeping an eye on as these small westward tracking easterly fetches can sometimes punch well above their weight.

Right now the models have this easterly dip fizzing out before it gets too close to the mainland, but prior to then should have generated a small renewal of E’ly swell that’ll lift surf size from later Monday thru’ Tuesday and Wednesday across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. At this stage set waves should hold in and around the 2-3ft range at exposed beaches (maybe a little smaller on the points, and south of Yamba) but let’s take a closer look at this into Monday.

The other area of interest is a stationary trough off the Northern Qld coast, which - in conjunction with the Tasman high - extends a broad ridge out into the Coral Sea. The squeeze between the two is expected to moderately strengthen from Sunday onwards.

Initially, this strengthening looks to be mostly a piecemeal effort with no consistent form of consolidation. So the surf potential is somewhat patchy from this source at first.

However, the is a suggestion within some of the models that we may also see another easterly dip form west of New Caledonia early next week. The reason this is interesting is that (1) an E’ly dip will tighten and focus the fetch (slightly stronger, more consolidated), and (2) it’ll also swing the fetch around to the E/NE - aimed into our general neck of the woods. 

The other favourable synoptic feature is that the overall blocking pattern looks like it’ll remain in place. So whatever strengthens in the lower Coral Sea will probably remain slow moving for a considerable period of time. And this is great for surf production on many levels, especially if the fetch remains just offshore so as to not greatly influence local winds. We can often see an extra 20-30% out of a stationary fetch - even if just at 20kts - than that of a migrating system. 

So, this is still quite some time away but right now it looks like the second half of next week will see a slow but steady increase in E/NE swell, bigger on the Sunshine Coast with sets in the 4ft range by later Thursday or Friday (smaller south of here, especially so south of Ballina or Yamba). 

And if all goes to plan and the block remains in place (and the easterly dip maintains strength), we could see a continual slow increase in size throughout the following weekend, holding into the adjoining week. I wouldn't be surprised if next weekend ended up producing 4-5ft waves across SE Qld beaches and 3-4ft surf on the points. But that's going out on a limb right now; there's a lot that needs to come together between now and then.

So, it's nothing amazing to pin your hopes on just yet - but the longer term trend certainly points towards a small but sustained, and most importantly - slowly building trade swell. Which is always a bucketload of fun around here.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.