South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd March)

Best Days: No great days although there'll be small peaky surf for much of the forecast period.

Recap: Small uninteresting mix of SE and S swells, with mainly moderate SE winds (lighter and more SW early morning in some spots). And a bloody torrent of rain across Far Northern NSW on Tuesday. 

This week (Mar 2nd - 4th)

These’ll be the shortest forecast notes in weeks, I tells ya.

The synoptic chart is paralysingly boring and simple. We have no major weather systems expected in any of our swell windows this week, so the forecast for the next few days remains the same as issued on Monday. 

In short - we're looking at a continuation of small peaky swell, mainly from the SE courtesy of a moderate ridge developing across the Northern Tasman Sea, plus some small leftover southerly groundswell from today. The latter will ease steadily throughout Thursday and will only benefit south swell magnets in Northern NSW. 

At this stage it’s hard to pick a winner between Thursday or Friday, though the former may come out slightly on top. Most open beaches should see peaky, low quality surf between 2ft and maybe 3ft (smaller at any location offering protection, such as a pointbreak), and probably easing a smidge into Friday. The largest wave heights will be concentrated in Northern NSW, and northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts however open beaches will be bumpy under the persistent onshore airstream. Aim for the early morning while winds are lighter and more variable.

All in all, a couple of forgettable days of waves, compared to the incredible surf seen over recent weeks. 

This weekend (Mar 5th - 6th)

A small new E’ly fetch off the top of New Zealand discussed on Monday is still undergoing development today, and should push out of the swell shadow on Thursday. However the models have wound back its strength a touch. 

I still think we’ll see a marginally stronger pulse of E’ly swell on Saturday - perhaps not arriving early morning but late morning thru’ lunch - and wave heights may trend towards the lower end of what I was expecting in Monday's notes.

For now I’m going to maintain an expectation for peaky surf building to 2-3ft at most open beaches throughout the day (smaller at dawn), with a few bigger bombs possible at reliable swell magnets in Northern NSW on Saturday afternoon, however I wouldn’t be surprised if this forecast is nudged down a fraction in Friday’s update.

Expect marginally smaller surf on Sunday as this pulse eases; the biggest waves will be in the morning. 

Local winds look rather nondescript too, mainly moderate onshore though with periods of variable conditions early morning. 

Next week (Mar 7th onwards)

Stil no major features in the long term forecast however the broader trade flow will start to muscle up later in the weekend and continue through next week, which will give rise to a small, building E’ly swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for most of the week. 

At this stage no major size is expected - probably some 2-3ft sets across the open beaches (upper end of this size range on the Sunny Coast), and there's possibly a chance for a few bigger waves during the second half of the week if the trades are persistent enough.

Local winds should retain much this week’s characteristics too - moderate SE, lighter and more SW for brief periods early morning in a few select locations. Expect smaller surf south of Ballina. 

More on this in Friday’s update. But don't go booking any flexi time right now.