South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th February)

Best Days: Nothing great throughout the forecast period but there'll be small peaky beachies most days. Thurs looks OK at this stage, Saturday probably the pick with a slightly stronger E'ly pulse. Nothing worth rearranging the diary for though.

Recap: What a weekend. The big question is though - was Friday’s forecast accurate? In my eyes, some parts were, and some parts were not.

But the take home message (gusty S/SE winds, large swells, suitable only to protected points) was spot on for Saturday. And Sunday did see a reinforcing E'ly swell across SE Qld that certainly provided some of the amazing fantasy lineups seen across the Gold Coast in many years ('fantasy' being the quality of the surf, and also the chances of actually catching a wave without anyone dropping in).

It would appear that Snapper Rocks also hasn’t suffered too much from sand erosion either, which is great news for the upcoming Quiksilver Pro - as long as there’s swell…

But in short, Saturday morning dawned to reveal a temporary lag between swells, with Friday’s large pulse on the way out and Saturday’s new swell yet to properly show. The Sunshine Coast built in size throughout the day, with the Noosa points offering one of the best days in years whilst exposed beaches pushed upwards of 8-10ft at times (though these open stretches were terribly wind affected and unsurfable). The Gold and Tweed Coasts saw large waves throughout Saturday though it seemed to peak a little smaller (6-8ft) however some 10ft+ sets were reported from Byron down to Yamba in the victory-at-sea conditions. Smaller but still sizeable surf then played out across the Mid North Coast.

Into Sunday, and wave heights managed 5-6ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with marginally smaller surf south of Yamba, and the southerly flow eased enough to allow more locations to come into play. An easing trend occurred throughout the day, but it dropped more noticeably overnight where we’ve been left with weak 2-3ft leftovers across SE Qld, and a few bigger waves at swell magnets south of the border for today. A major contrast to the weekend’s incredible surf.

No, this surfcam screengrab has NOT been Photoshopped. Sunday morning's incredible neverending lineup at the Superbank.

This week (Mar 1st - 4th)

No major swells expected this week, and local winds will be variable tending onshore, so surface conditions won’t be terribly flash either.

The E’ly swell from TC Winston is almost completely gone now so we’re relying on a couple of small, lacklustre pulses of energy. A minor southerly swell form a Southern Ocean front is pushing across Northern NSW right now but there’s no major size in it. Expect a small mix of average surf across Northern NSW on Tuesday, with not much happening north of the border. Winds will be moderate to fresh SE, possibly lighter and more SW early. Really, you shouldn't waste much time looking for waves on Tuesday.

A second S’ly swell will push across Northern NSW on Wednesday, generated by the tail end of the frontal passage across the lower south-eastern Tasman Sea yesterday and today, but again - this system wasn’t very well aligned so only south swell magnets south of Byron will really see any value. These exposed locations should see occasional 3ft sets but it’ll be smaller elsewhere due to the direction, and I doubt SE Qld will will see any love at all, once again thanks to the swell direction.

Also in the mix for much of the coming week is a small mid-range SE swell, generated by a moderately strengthening ridge through the central and northern Tasman Sea. Usually, these swells produce small peaky beach breaks around 2-3ft max at open stretches, but the low periods means it’ll be quite susceptible to tidal variations, and with local winds expected to trend moderate onshore throughout the days (following isolated periods of light variable winds early mornings), surface conditions won’t be amazing. 

As there is no swell front and corresponding trend for these kinds of patterns, we can simply expect the surf to ebb and flow all week. The models estimate that Thursday may see the biggest surf from this pattern but it’s not worth holding your breath for. We probably won’t see much action across the outer Qld points either; there won’t be enough oomph in the swell for anything notable (there should however be some sort of small rideable wave through the second half of the week).

Aim for an exposed beach and you’ll pick up something small and wobbly but make sure you’ve got a high volume board. 

This weekend (Mar 5th - 6th)

Nothing major for the weekend. At this stage our swell windows will probably be devoid of any signifiant weather systems so the most likely outcome is peaky beach breaks with light variable winds.

The only synoptic system I’ll be keeping a close eye on Wednesday for, is the eastward migrating high pressure system in the eastern Tasman Sea that’s expected to strengthen a modest E/SE fetch just north of New Zealand’s North Island through Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a small trough to the north providing a useful squeeze. 

Although this fetch will be located further away that the currently developing fetch (supplying our long-lived, if somewhat small and uninteresting trade swell), the stronger winds within this fetch may compensate somewhat. 

So at this stage, whilst I don’t think it’ll produce any major size increase - arriving on Saturday, and easing slowly through the day and into Sunday - the quality of the surf should be a little better with the larger wavelength helping the swell to focus into the coast with more strength. Set waves should hold in and around the 2-3ft mark at most open beaches at the height of the swell on Saturday, it'll be very inconsistent at times but swell magnets south of Byron may pick up a few bigger sets at times.

As for surf quality - early indications are light and variable breezes early, tending onshore throughout the days. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (Mar 7th onwards)

There’s a suggestion that the trades will broaden and slowly strength from this weekend onwards, stretching from the Coral Sea through to the South Pacific south-east of Fiji. 

This suggests a small to moderate but useful trade swell for South East Queensland and Northern NSW (at a minimum) developing for much of next week and into the following weekend - no major size but plenty of action for the beaches and outer points. 

Let’s ballpark wave heights in the 3ft range for much of the week with a day or two nudging slightly higher than this. More in Wednesday’s updated notes.