South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 16th March)

Best Days: Plenty of small beachies most days, wind affected Sat PM and Sun though. Fun E'ly swell early next week; stronger E'ly groundswell Wed onwards.

Recap: Lots of great waves over the last few days. Peaky E’ly trade swell persisted into Tuesday morning with solid 3ft+ sets for the early session across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but size eased throughout the day. As expected, a minor pulse of trade swell increased the surf to 3ft+ across these regions again today, though wave heights have been a little smaller across the Mid North Coast. Winds have been mainly moderate to fresh from the SW thru’ SE in northern locations, with lighter winds in the south.

This week (Mar 17th - 18th)

Our primary, near source of trade swell began to weaken yesterday so from here we’re looking at a slow easing trend into Thursday. However the trades are still quite active out towards Fijian longitudes, so we won’t lose too much size - the surf should continue to provide fun peaky options at most open beaches all the way into the weekend (and beyond, but more on that below). 

In addition to this, the Northern NSW coast will receive a shot of S/SE swell on Thursday from a near-stationary fetch off the Southern NSW coast today. 

As for size, early Thursday morning should still offer occasional 2-3ft+ sets across exposed SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches early morning (smaller running down the points), and the expected S/SE swell for Northern NSW should provide a similar size range at south facing beaches. Wave heights should ease a little during the day.

Winds are looking pretty good at most locations, with light SW breezes early tending S’ly then S/SE mid-late morning onwards. But no major strength is expected into the afternoon.

On Friday, both the E’ly and S/SE swells will weaken slightly, offering somewhere between 2ft and very occasionally 3ft at exposed beaches - down a little in size from Thursday, but probably more prominently in the strength department. Expect smaller waves at sheltered locations and points. 

Fortunately, local conditions are looking very good with early light winds tending NE into the afternoon. The Mid North Coast will probably experience fresher afternoon breezes, but either way the morning will offer the best conditions at most locations. 

This weekend (Mar 19th - 20th)

We’ve still got a tricky outlook ahead, but the expectations for a southerly change on Saturday are still on track.

In fact they’ve been pulled forward a little - it looks like the Mid North Coast will see the change through around dawn, with southerly winds reaching the border around lunchtime. Prior to its arrival, light northerly winds are possible. Moderate to fresh SW tending S/SE winds are then expected through Sunday as the ridge maintains its coastal presence.

As for surf, the next round of E’ly swell has also been delayed a little. A strengthening belt of trades south of Fiji on Thursday now looks like it’ll develop a small embedded tropical system for a day or two, but the main pulse from this probably won’t arrive until very late Sunday, or more likely Monday morning.

However, the head of the tradebelt will be active prior to this system reaching peak intensity, and closer to the mainland too. This should keep most open beaches humming with peaky 2ft+ surf all weekend. It’ll be a little slow, inconsistent and tidally dependent but there’ll certainly be waves about the traps. Don’t expect a great deal of energy across the points though, both days will definitely be best suited to wide open beach breaks.

Also in the water over the will be some remnant S/SE swell from the Thursday pulse (easing through Saturday) plus some building short range S/SE windswell on Sunday in the lee of the southerly change. Exposed south facing beaches will pick up the bulk of this low quality windswell, and they'll be bumpy under the southerly breeze too. So don't get too excited about it.

Putting this all together, and it looks like both mornings will offer the best waves, across open beaches. Early Saturday should see clean peaky beaches in the north ahead of the S’ly change (there’s a risk this won’t occur across the Mid North Coast), and Sunday morning should offer a period of early SW winds before the synoptic breeze kicks into gear again throughout the day, creating bumpy conditions after lunch. 

Next week (Mar 21st onwards)

There is still plenty of swell on tap for next week.

As mentioned above, we’ve got a small pulse of E’ly swell due on Monday, with occasional sets in the 2-3ft range at most open beaches. I’m not overly confident for anything amazing but there’ll certainly be halfway decent waves at open stretches if the ridge generating Sunday’s winds eases enough to allow for a period of light variable winds in the morning.  

Gusty trades are expected to remain anchored in our mid-to-far swell window over the weekend (S/SE of Fiji), whilst a broad tropical depression to the north pushes south, tightening the squeeze between the two and strengthening the fetch. By the end of the weekend it looks like we’ll have quite a healthy system north and northeast of New Zealand, that should generate a two or three day run of decent E’ly groundswell, somewhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at exposed beaches. 

This swell is currently pegged to arrive Wednesday, with a peak in size likely around Thursday (I’ll fine tune the specifics in Friday’s notes). However early indications suggest that while the early part of this swell will be favourably aligned for most coasts, the southward track of the core fetch will push it slowly inside the swell shadow of New Zealand. This will initially reduce the size potential for more southern locations, so at this stage I’d be hedging my bets on an extended period of quality surf across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

The models are also suggesting a tropical cyclone will form near New Caledonia over the weekend though it probably won’t be in a favourable position for quite some time. Gut feel points towards a scenario whereby the cyclone becomes absorbed into the ridge early-mid next week, enhancing the surface wind field considerably and generating a second pulse of easterly groundswell for the end of next week or the weekend. But this is still quite some time away.

Elsewhere, the Tasman Sea will remain quite unstable throughout the entire forecast period thanks to a broad trough stretching its entire length. Whilst there are no major systems of interest in the current progs, many of the ingredentients are certainly lining up for a potential development sometime next week.

Let’s see how things are looking on Friday. ‘Till then, enjoy your beachies!