Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 24th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun small mix of swells with light winds Fri AM
• Small clean surf Sat AM with mod/fresh a’noon sea breezes
• Extending into Sun with freshening N’lies and a pulse of E/SE swell after lunch
• S’ly change Mon (W-SW early on the Hunter) with small leftovers
• Possible fun NE windswell Wed, peaking Thurs AM with potentially good winds
• Tropical depression (possibly TC) drifts south later next week with moderate E/NE-E swells likely by late next weekend- stay tuned for updates!

Recap

Ugly, onshore conditions yesterday with mod/fresh SE-E winds making a mess of just about everywhere and an uninviting 3-5ft of mostly short period SE-E windswell. Today has settled down considerably with light winds and glassy/lumpy conditions allowing for some fun 3ft (slightly bigger on the Hunter) surf to be utilised if you aren’t too fussy about wave quality. 

Nothing to write home about but a definite improvement on the last couple of days

This weekend (Feb 25 - 26)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now moving SE towards the tip of the South Island, setting up a N’ly flow across temperate NSW, more SE-E in the sub-tropics. We should see an early morning variable/NW flow through tomorrow morning with clean conditions before the N’ly kicks up and tends mod/fresh N/NE through the a’noon. Surf-wise a few clean 2 footers are on the menu- maybe a few bigger sets. Nothing to get too excited about but there will be workable beachies on hand. Just a mix of easing SE and E swells filtering down from more northerly latitudes. 

Winds look more feisty on Sun as an approaching trough tightens the pressure gradient. Lighter N winds won’t last long before kicking up to mod strength. Not much size early with a continuation of mixed E quadrant swells to 2ft but we will see an increase in E/SE swell to 2-3ft from a Cook Strait fetch. A trough pushing north looks to reach Jervis Bay or just north of there by close of play Sun- but keep tabs on local winds later Sun a’noon in case it’s running early or late. There will be some funky options around the trough line if you are prepared to roll the dice.

Next week (Feb 27 onwards)

S’ly change should be well in on Mon morning before the trough stalls out on the lower Mid North Coast. That stalling is likely to see a morning W-SW flow on the Hunter, with S’ly winds across the Sydney Basin. Winds are expected to tend light SE-E in the a’noon as the trough dissipates. Leftover E/SE swell from Sun will supply some small 2ft+ surf early, easing through the day.

That easing trend continues into Tues, which looks tiny across most of the region with light winds.

Weak high pressure and an advancing trough fires up a proximate N’ly fetch along the NSW temperate coast Wed (see below) which is expected to whip up some local NE windswell. Under current modelling we can peg size in the 3ft range.

The trough brings a possible NW-SW flow early Thurs morning, subject to revision which may see some excellent NE windswell in the 3-4ft range, quickly easing through the day. Pencil in Thurs morning.

OK, back to the tropics. As Craig outlined in his article we have a very active phase with strong vorticity expected through the Coral Sea into the South Pacific as a W-NW monsoon flow, NE cross-equatorial flow and SE wind combine next week. Models are now firming on a large tropical depression (possibly a TC) drifting southwards into the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island from mid next week. A broad, slow moving area of E’ly low end gales is likely on the southern flank of this system, initially favouring the sub-tropics, but radiating down to temperate NSW through next weekend.

We’ll finesse size and timing next week as real-time data comes in but at the moment we’ll start to pencil in surf starting to build most likely Sun, into the 3-4ft range. Bigger on Mon.

Don’t get too excited if you are into big surf. The system is expected to track SE onto the Pacific side of the North Island, which will keep a lid on wave heights compared to a system tracking inside the North Island down the Tasman Sea. 

Should still see some very fun, good quality E/NE-E swell though.

Later next week, GFS suggests a strong cold front and low passing through the lower Tasman, which would add S swell to the mix. EC wants nothing to do with it, so let’s see how models behave over the weekend. 

Check back Mon and we’ll have a fresh look at it.

In the mean-time, have a great weekend!