Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S’ly change Mon (W-SW early on the Hunter) with small leftovers
• Small mixed bag Tues with early light winds
• Robust S’ly change Wed, easing Thurs with mediocre short range S swell Wed PM, Thurs AM before easing
• Small mixed bag Fri with light winds
• Traces of S swell Fri-Sun, biggest Sun
• Light winds Sat, tending SE-E Sun
• Small amounts of E/NE swell all weekend
• Small mixed bag continues into next week with NE winds
• Tropics downgraded as depressions or TC’s race away to the SE

Recap

A few fun waves over the weekend with Sat seeing mostly 2-3ft surf with a sligh kick to 3ft in the a'noon, and light land breezes early tending variable then N’ly. Sunday was a notch smaller, in the 2ft range with light morning winds and a’noon N’ly winds which kicked up. An E/SE swell pulse came in under f/cast but produced a few 3ft sets. Today has seen a brief window of clean conditions with 2-3ft surf from the E/SE-E before a stiff S’ly change blew out most spots apart from the more sheltered locations.

Bit of swell energy around, clean-ish just before the S'ly hit

This week (Feb 27-Mar3)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea- with a stalled trough near the lower end of the Mid North Coast and a very active monsoon trough across Northern Australia and extending into the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across temperate NSW this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential. Let’s drill down.

In the short run and todays S’ly change rapidly runs out of steam with early light SW-S winds tending light E then E/NE-NE through the a’noon. Not much surf expected as E swells ease back. A few 2ft sets early with an easing trend seeing surf in the 1-2ft range through the day.

First day of Autumn begins with a light W-NW flow as a trough approaches and a small mixed bag of weak swells in the 1-2ft range at swell magnets, tiny elsewhere. A vigorous S’ly change pushes through with the trough by mid morning and with fresh S’lies established through the a’noon we’ll see some local S’ly windswell pushed up into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches, bigger by a notch on the Hunter. Much smaller surf at protected locations.

Short range S swell carries over Into Thurs morning in the 2-3ft range with an easing trend and  no real quality. The trough quickly moves away and dissipates, leaving a light SE flow through the day. Very mediocre with just enough action for a grovel. 

Mediocrity continues into Friday with a small mixed bag of easing S-SE swell, a small amount of filtered E/NE swell from the bottom of the Coral Sea tradewind belt and traces of long period S swell from a strong frontal system and deep low in the Southern Ocean below Tasmania. All up, expect a few 2ft sets tops in a mostly weak, 1-1.5ft surf and light onshore SE winds. 

This weekend (Mar 4-5)

A large high slowly tracks past Tasmania this weekend, setting up a weak ridge along the NSW coast with light SSE-SE winds Sat, tending more SE-ESE Sunday.

No great size expected Sat with more of the same small mixed bag in the 1-2ft range expected. Small sideband energy from an off axis fetch over near the South Island, with small trade swell mixed in and traces of long period S’ly energy which offers chances for some bigger 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches.

The parent low well below Tasmania looks to stall Thurs/Fri which should allow more long period S swell up the pipe for Sunday. We should see more consistent 3ft sets Sun, along with some short range ESE swell as the dominant high builds E’ly winds through the Tasman. Mid period E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics adds some small 2-3ft energy to the mix. If you can work with light/mod onshore winds there’ll be enough waves to have fun on, albeit of no great quality.

Next week (Mar6 onwards)

Nothing to get frothy about next week. Tropical developments have been downgraded as a tropical depression near Vanuatu this week, possibly followed by a second system, remain discrete systems and track SE rapidly through the swell window. We’ll monitor for any signs of slowing or stalling which would enhance swell production but at this stage it looks like they will be whisked off to the graveyard (behind New Zealand) without any major swell production.

Ergo, our small mixed bag continues into next week, with Mon seeing more small trade swell, ESE swell, easing S and possibly a small amount of NE windswell as N to NE winds start to kick up on Mon. 

NE windswell is likely to boost in the mix Tues as winds freshen in advance of a trough. We’ll peg it for 2-3ft later in the day, with a S’ly change on the radar- timing to be confirmed through the week. 

Lots of model divergence between major models through mid next week with GFS suggesting the trough stalls, with a mid-latitude low near Tasmania and continuing N’ly winds and small NE windswell.

EC suggests S’ly flow a sizeable low moving into the lower Tasman through the same period and S swell on the menu for later next week.

We’ll flag those possibilities for now and check back Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

See ya then.