Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 3rd March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Traces of long period S swell Fri-Sun, biggest Sun
• Light winds Sat, tending N/NE Sun and freshening
• Small amounts of E/NE swell all weekend
• Small mixed bag continues into next week with NE winds, NE windswell Mon PM/Tues
• Complex low moves into Tasman next week, pulses of S swell ahead from Wed-Fri
• Tropics downgraded as depressions or TC’s race away to the SE

Recap

Small surf yesterday with a mix of S swell to 2-3ft which perked up a notch in the a’noon under a light SE-ESE flow. Today has seen light morning variable/offshore winds with a notch more long period S swell producing sets to 3ft+ at facing beaches (a few 4ft bombs at some of the more reliable S swell magnets), smaller elsewhere. Light E/SE winds are on the radar as seasonal land breezes fade out.

Energy continues to wrap in from the S

This weekend (Mar 4-5)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A weak ridge from a high (1023hPa) tracking towards Tasmania supplies weak breezes tomorrow, likely SW inshore early before tending light SE-NE through the day. A continuing mix of S swells, mostly mid period from the frontal progression below Australia supplies some 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets, smaller elsewhere. A small amount of E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics adds some 1-2ft energy to the mix. Be on the lookout for a late pulse of longer period S swell at reliable swell magnets which should add some 3ft+ sets into the mix.

Light NW winds for Sun morning which will be favourable for S swell magnets. Long period S swell will see 3ft+ sets (possibly 4ft at more reliable magnets). High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman creating a N-NE flow through Sun which will kick up through the a’noon into the 20kt range. 

Next week (Mar6 onwards)

N’ly winds freshen through Mon as a complex low approaches from the W and tightens pressure gradients across the region. Small mix of swells is expected with easing S swell supplying a few sets early to S facing beaches in the 2-3ft range before easing off. Some small E/NE swell generated as both TC Judy and TC Kevin race through the swell window and add a bit of scattered E-E/NE energy to the East Coast as they go. Nothing major, just a few 2ft sets. Through the a’noon expect NE windswell to start to build up into the 2-3ft range.

A trough in advance of a front linked to the complex low brings a clearing W’ly flow through Tues morning with clean NE windswell in the 3ft range expected. Pencil that one in. 

By Mid week we’ll see a synoptic W’ly flow being driven across temperate NSW by the complex low and front which is expected to be slow moving in Tasmanian longitudes. That should see a low point in wave heights Wed AM with groomed conditions and tiny surf in the 1-2ft range.

Slow moving complex low brings offshore winds and S swell pulses next week.

A Bass Strait fetch of gales protruding into the Tasman Tues should see a kick in new directional S swell later Wed, likely into the 3ft range at S facing beaches from Sydney up to the Hunter (bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter).

More reliable S swell fills in Thurs as SW/SSW winds push NE into the Tasman. We’ll finesse size and timing on Mon but at this early stage pencil in size of 3ft at S facing beaches with light winds as a weak, troughy pattern slips into the Tasman.

Smaller pulses then looks to supply small S swell into the end of next week and the weekend. Nothing too major as winds are quite zonal in the fetch so not ideally aimed for swell production into our side of the Tasman Sea.

Further ahead and models are suggesting an intensification of a last fetch of the frontal progression next weekend, suggesting a strong pulse of SSE swell early week of 13/3. Tropics remains active so we’ll keep tabs on that as well and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!